Obama has ignored Syria for far too long

It’s time for him to arm moderate rebels, impose a no-fly zone and expand military action beyond Iraq

US President Barack Obama is embarking on a global course correction, if not an outright reversal: The policy of ‘don’t do stupid stuff ’ — the non-interventionism so praised by the Farid Zakarias and Tom Friedmans of the world — is getting forced out, albeit in the typical Obama fashion of admitting nothing and never going fast or far enough.

And to hear the Chuck Hagels and John Kerrys of the administration tell the story for him, it’s all the fault of the Islamic State (ISIS), which is “beyond just a terrorist group”, “an organisation that has an apocalyptic, end-of-days strategic vision and which will eventually have to be defeated” — a feat which, realistically, will require some intervention not just in Iraq … but in Syria.

When the Obama administration refused to enforce a no-fly zone over Syria in 2011, the indifference gave rise to despair and forced people to abandon their nonviolent ways to defend themselves, effectively transforming the nonviolent protest movement into an armed resistance. Obama’s refusal to then support the rebels following the advice of his then-secretary of state, among other officials, created a vacuum that was gradually filled by extremist elements emerging out of the woodwork and jihadists pouring across the borders, a combination that paved the way for the emergence of the ISIS.

Now, the ISIS has a vision being carried out — effectively, if with pure evil — by technocratic leaders with succession plans, flexible but enduing structures, and major funding, with major operations based out of its hub in Syria. Soon, some of its acolytes might make like Hezbollah and run legitimate businesses across multiple countries that secretly fund terror; some already appear to be attracted to the radicalised appeal of ISIS leader Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi declaring a new Caliphate.

No wonder Obama is finding it so difficult to justify a policy of minimal engagement anymore — perhaps even to himself. Blanket, cold-hearted realism doesn’t work when networked, cold-hearted terrorism does.

The only way for Obama to stop doing stupid stuff with his foreign policy is to arm moderate rebels in Syria, to bomb ISIS bases in both Syria and Iraq and to finally impose a no-fly zone on the Assad regime. This combination of tactics could allow the Syrian opposition — which has thus far been unable to govern the liberated areas due to Assad’s use of aerial strikes — to move in and work with the local councils to begin returning the basic services to the local communities, bringing a measure of relief to the local civilian population. Imposing a no-fly zone also avoids having to supply advanced weapons to rebels, including TOW missiles and MANPADs, thus minimising the risk of having them end up in the wrong hands.

Obama already plans to take a leading role at next month’s UN General Assembly, where strategies for holding back the ISIS will be a top priority. But Western and Middle Eastern leaders need to begin preparing for a peace conference following such strikes, because a real transition plan for a postconflict and post-Assad Syria needs to be developed. Talks will not be easy (and could drag out for months if not longer), but if the regime’s ability to wreak havoc on rebel communities is curbed by strikes and the economic blockade against it is strengthened, time will not be on its side.

It’s about time for the Obama administration to do the right thing. It’s about time, after doing so much stupid stuff and aiding in the rise of the ISIS, to begin resolving a conflict that has killed close to 200,000 people in less than four years, and produced millions of refugees, becoming the worst humanitarian disaster since the Cold War.