Parties count on today’s verdict to set tone for 2019
HIGH STAKES BJP win in UP could strengthen PM’s hand while a setback could see new national dynamic; Punjab holds key for Cong
From Lucknow to Panaji and Chandigarh to Imphal, political speculation swirled and anxiety soared ahead of five state assembly election results on Saturday that could test Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s ability to pursue tough reforms and see new opposition alliances.
With hours to go, India held its breath for counting day. At stake was continued dominance for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), survival for the Congress and relevance for a clutch of regional outfits.
Exit polls, which have a patchy record in India, showed the BJP storming to power in at least three states, including the political bellwether, Uttar Pr adesh (UP).
The prediction buoyed BJP leaders, who walked with a certain confidence, and claimed a UP win was just moments away. The opposition scoffed, with Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi saying, “Our alliance is winning. Such exit polls we saw in Bihar also. We will talk tomo row.” For BJP, Saturday marks its best chance of returning to power in UP after 14 years.
The PM himself, in a rather unprecedented move, spent three straight days in his constituency of Varanasi and addressed 23 rallies in about a month in UP. This was variously interpreted as a sign of nervousness, or commitment to see the BJP past the finishing line.
A clutch of victories would come as vindication of Modi’s policies, including the controversial decision to recall 500-and 1,000-rupee banknotes, and boost his chances for a second term in the national elections in 2019. A strong showing by his party will also provide fresh impetus to politically unpalatable but industry-friendly labour and land reforms.
“BJP is already the dominant national force. This election will show us the extent of dominance, especially if it wins UP,” said Pratap Bhanu Mehta, head of the Centre for Policy Research. “Its victory or loss will also show if the competitive spaces in Indian politics open up or not.”
Polls predict Modi’s party would retain power in Goa and take Uttarakhand from the Congress, and put the BJP narrowly ahead in Manipur.