Washington fires a warning shot
US’ response to the attack in Syria signals a return to its traditional foreign policy
The Syrian civil war has taken another turn with the massive missile strike by the US on an airbase of the Bashar al-Assad government. The proximate cause of the attack was a horrific chemical gas attack on civilians near the province of Idlib, likely carried out by the Assad regime. The question is whether this signifies a fundamental change in the US’ policy towards the Syrian conflict. That is not clear yet, especially given the highly personalised and mercurial nature of President Donald Trump’s policy-making.
Nonetheless, there are three observations that can be made about the attack. One, the attack has sent a strong signal that the Trump administration will no longer remain aloof as the Syrian war seemed to be headed towards an Assad victory – and, therefore, a success for his Iranian and Russian backers. This does not mean Washington is again seeking Assad’s overthrow. But the US now seems prepared to help the non-extremist rebels have a stronger hand in any future negotiations. Two, though designed to help other rebel factions the attack will give some breathing space to the Islamic State (IS). While the overthrow of the terrorist State remains the number one US strategic goal, the fact the IS as a territorial entity is now clearly on its last legs means more traditional geopolitical considerations are beginning to surface in the US’s policy calculations. Three, there has been growing evidence, most notably the eviction of Mr Trump’s chief strategist Stephen Bannon from the National Security Council, that the US president’s more ideologicallydriven advisers are slowly being marginalised in the US government. Their influence remains and the Trump administration is likely to remain unpredictable and mercurial in many matters given the character of the president.
But the Syrian attack, the increasing hostility to Russia, the return to a one-China policy and the seeming decision to not rip up the Iran-US nuclear agreement are among the signs that mainstream foreign-policy thinking is slowly seeping back into the White House and the line ministries below. The US ship of State is now starting to show an increasing tendency to hew to a straighter and more predictable course. This alone is a welcome development: Capriciousness at the highest level is unsettling in small countries, but with a superpower it is dangerous. Mr Trump is not the type to embed something like the Syrian attack in any larger strategic explanation, however, his actions give a sense of business as usual.