In the Himachal assembly, it’s a two-horse race
The men to watch are former CMs Virbhadra Singh of the Congress and Prem Kumar Dhumal of the BJP
Assembly elections in India are largely seen in terms of caste, community, development, crime, corruption and leadership vacuums. As Himachal Pradesh goes to the polls on November 9, these issues are again likely to play on the voters’ minds. Along with, of course, local factors which come into play every five years such as Himachal’s large employee force, the royal cult and the traditional horticulturist and the agriculturist divide.
Politics in Himachal Pradesh has largely hovered around a bipolarity for many decades with the Congress and the BJP being the chief protagonists. The idea of third party or front has failed apart from a few instances of sporadic successes such as the time the Himachal Log Rag Party was founded in 1967 by Thakur Sen Negi and JBL Khachi; the Janata Dal by Vijay Mankotia in 1990; the Himachal Vikas Congress by Pandit Sukh Ram in 1997 and the Himachal Lokhit Party by Maheshwar Singh in 2012. National parties such as the BSP, SP, CPI, CPI(M) and Trinamool Congress have also fought elections in the past but with no significant gains.
While the Congress has gained first mover advantage by breaching the governmental and organisational divide by declaring Virbhadra Singh as its chief ministerial candidate, the BJP lags on this front. Its strategy of declaring the candidate after elections may work against it because of former chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal’s clout and overarching influence in the party when pitted against others.
The parachute landing of certain candidates with an unscrupulous past may tarnish the BJP’s image. The Congress has lived up to its dynastic reputation since family members of big names such as Virbhadra Singh, Kaul Singh, RN Sharma and Brij Bihari Lal Butel have been fielded.
A strong anti-incumbency feeling has always played a significant role in Himachal politics for many centuries now. This is partially owing to a big workforce of government employees who are vertically split on party lines and leverage it to extract more from governments. But entrenched caste or community equations such as Brahmin-Rajput, Girath, Chaudhary, Gaddi, Muslim and Sikh are confined to certain areas and may not influence voting considerations too strongly.
But the contest to watch will be between ‘Raja’ Virbhadra Singh and Professor Prem Kumar Dhumal. Demonetisation and GST have further marginalised the poor and middle classes. Although, the current government has not performed badly in employment generation, corruption charges and the recent spurt in crime have alienated the voters.