Saffron fold relying on old war horse
Himachal Pradesh doesn’t wield much influence over national politics, but these assembly elections are of immense importance for the leading parties, particularly Bharatiya Janata Party, as their outcome will indicate which way the 2019 Lok Sabha elections could swing.
The saffron party had a head start in the hills as it began its poll preparations a year ago, with party’s national president Amit Shah drawing the election strategy. Initially, the party decided not to name the CM candidate, and relied largely on Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s magic, but rumblings in the cadre forced it to change its plans and deploy former chief minister Prem Kumar Dhumal as a force multiplier.
BJP had lost the 2012 elections primarily due to infighting between two stalwarts—former chief ministers Shanta Kumar and Prem Kumar Dhumal. It faced rebellion in 18 seats, and the two made it to the assembly as independent candidates. The party’s vote share also slumped by 5% in these elections.
It’s due to this fear of infighting that the party had hesitated in declaring its CM face before the polls. Its strategists assessed that Modi would be enough to win the battle. It also feared factionalism and undercutting by rebels on half-a-dozen seats.
But despite announcing its candidates in advance after studying survey reports, the party faced rebellion at Palampur where Shanta Kumar loyalist, former legislator Parveen Sharma, rebelled against the party’s nominee, state BJP Mahila Morcha chief Indu Goswami. The party could not pla- cate him despite persistent efforts. The party also allocated tickets to two Shanta loyalists, former ministers Ramesh Dhawala and Kishan Kapoor, amid growing fear that denial of tickets to them could have a ripple effect in Kangra, the state’s biggest district with 15 assembly segments.
Fearing that intra-party squabbles could mar its chances of regaining power, the party pressed into action its troubleshooters, national organisation secretary Ram Lal, election in-charge and Union minister Thawar Chand Ghelot, Union health minister Jagat Parkash Nadda, and in-charge of party affairs, Mangal Pandey, but Shanta Kumar avoided campaigning for candidates in Kangra where he still wields considerable influence.
It was then that the party decided to fall back on Dhumal, the two-time chief minister with a mass base to counter Congress CM Virbhadra Singh’s appeal. Dhumal’s declaration as the CM candidate energised the BJP’s campaign and gave the party an edge in several constituencies where its candidates were lagging behind. Interestingly, Union minister Nadda, who was also considered a contender for the CM’s post, kept a low profile after Dhumal’s elevation.