Hardik the key disruptor but BJP holds off charge
The Patidar leader’s intervention in the polls in favour of Congress has unsettled the BJP’s political dominance
A single week during the peak of the Patidar agitation in August 2015 changed Gujarat’s politics. A single man, who was at the forefront of the agitation, changed the election in 2017 despite being too young to contest.
Hardik Patel, 24, has given Gujarat its closest electoral fight in decades and unsettled the politically dominant Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP). Success also came the way of two other young guns — Jignesh Mevani and Alpesh Thakor — the Congress banked on, but their impact was limited.
HARDIK’S RISE
After 13 years of dominating the Gujarati political landscape, Narendra Modi left Gandhinagar for Delhi in May 2014. Within three months, a Patidar agitation rocked the state.
Hardik mobilised hundreds of thousands of people for a rally. The state government panicked, responded with repression, and not only antagonised its core social base of Patidars but also gifted the state a new leader.
Hardik went from strength to strength amid challenges. He was arrested, charged with sedition, his group split, and he was under surveillance. Yet, the man just did not fade away.
Over the past year, first quietly and then publicly, as the media picked up his appeal, Hardik travelled across Gujarat in his SUV. He did roadshows, rallies, spent time in cities and villages. He had only one message — “We have to teach the BJP a lesson”.
Back in April, he told Hindustan Times, “I will not join Congress. Congress symbol is suicide. I will transfer all my votes to Congress.” As the year winded down, that is what he did in an alliance with Congress president Rahul Gandhi.
If the Gujarat election has turned out to be close, it is because Hardik stole the BJP’s social base.
Patidars are a dominant community and when Patels, sitting in tea shops across rural and semi-urban pockets, critique the BJP, it has a domino effect in creating public mood.
It is these young Patidars who made up for the lack of organisational backbone of the Congress. It is these young Patidars who went against the old voting habits of their parents and shed their old aversion to the Congress. Indeed, the original demand for reservations was not even a major issue anymore for many in the community. It was just an impulse for disruption.
THE PATIDAR IMPACT
In rural pockets dominated by Patels, farmer distress and Patidars nearly wiped out the BJP from its Saurashtra strongholds such as Amreli and Junagadh districts. The Congress won all five seats in Amreli, all three in Morbi and made a major dent in Junagadh.
Morb, Upleta and Tankara, semi-urban Patidar pockets in Saurashtra’s Morbi district, too went the Congress way.
But a nerve centre of the Patidar agitation – Surat, from where it got funds – opted for the BJP. It was from Surat where Hardik’s rise started two years ago. The BJP matched its 2012 tally by winning 15 of 16 seats in Surat.
“Hardik’s appeal and agitation worked in rural Saurashtra, where Patel farmers were reeling under farm distress. But at the same time, his agitation had no effect on urban Patidar pockets of Rajkot, Ahmedabad and Surat,” said political analyst Jwala Chhaya. “But credit must also go to Rahul Gandhi for making inroads into Saurashtra.”
The BJP won in urban pockets in Ahmedabad city, where Hardik held massive rallies.
The Congress lost in Nikol, where both Rahul and Hardik held public meetings. But the Congress won in Bapunagar, which saw violent protests in 2015 at the peak of the Patidar agitation.
The Congress also retained Viramgam seat in Hardik’s hometown.
MEVANI, THAKOR WIN
While Dalit leader Mevani won as a Congress-backed independent, he was largely focused on his Vadgam seat. But the BJP’s Dalit ministers, Aatmaram Parmar and Ramanlal Vora, lost in the polls held a year after flogging of four Dalit youths in Una by selfstyled cow vigilantes sparked statewide protests.
OBC leader Thakor – the third pillar in broader social coalition stitched by the Congress – won from Radhanpur, but his presence did not have a sweeping effect. The BJP held on to its base in the Congress stronghold of north Gujarat.
Hardik, who has been questioning the use of EVMs since the voting ended on December 14, continued to do so on Monday. “We will still do a recheck at the EVMs where BJP leaders won with thin margins,’’ he told the media.