Results won’t change BJP’s RS position

The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) on its own is unlikely to gain a majority in the Rajya Sabha until the 2019 general elections but might cross the halfway mark in the Upper House with the help of friendly parties by next June.

The BJP’s sweeping victories in Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra are expected to push the NDA and its partners past the majority mark in the Upper House, where the government has often struggled to push bills through.

But, BJP’s victories in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will have no bearing on the party’s Upper House strength till after the 2019 general elections.

The NDA currently holds 76 seats in the 245-member Upper House, where the halfway mark is 123. Between now and June 2018, 13 states with a combined strength of 65 seats will hold biennial elections to the Rajya Sabha.

This includes Uttar Pradesh (nine seats), Maharashtra (six seats), Madhya Pradesh (five seats) and Rajasthan (three seats). The NDA is likely to gain 10 more seats on its own, taking its tally to 86.

The NDA will then have to rely on friendly parties such as AIADMK (13 seats), Biju Janata Dal (eight seats) and a clutch of smaller outfits (16 seats) to take it past the majority mark. The saffron party’s chances will improve if it sweeps Karnataka, which holds four Rajya Sabha seats and goes to the polls early next year. The government will also nominate four members to the House in June and can expect their support in key bills and issues.

A majority in the Rajya Sabha will be a big boost for the government, which has often been embarrassed by the Congress-led opposition that has frequently stalled and delayed legislation.

Opposition parties such as the Congress, Left Front, Trinamool Congress, DMK, Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party had come together to even insert amendments to the President’s speech delivered at the beginning of the Budget session the last time. Results of states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh or Chhattisgarh will have no impact because the Rajya Sabha seats from these states don’t come up for election before the 2019 Lok Sabha polls.