In 2018, regional security will matter the most
We live in a world of big political personalities, “breaking news” and fast-moving events, but to understand how the world will change in 2018, we must look more closely at important political trends developing beneath the surface.
First, it is regional, not global, security that will matter most for war and peace. Donald Trump’s calls for an “America First” approach to US foreign policy inspired fear that Trump would dismantle alliances that took decades to build. Yet, Trump has relied mainly on experienced men in uniform to set policy, with a result, the occasional tweet-storm aside, that’s not so different from what we might have gotten from President Hillary Clinton.
The real change is in a more regional approach to security. For the foreseeable future, the US will remain the only country on Earth capable of extending military power into every region of the world. (The US continues to outspend China on defence by a margin of 3-1.) Yet, Trump is no more likely than Barack Obama was to use that force in surprising ways unless forced to by crisis. Trump, like Obama, is more interested in winning domestic political battles.
Second, ideological battles over political values like democracy, rule of law, freedom of the press, and freedom of speech are giving way to fights that are grounded more directly in naked self-interest. A decade ago, “western” political values appeared to have carried the day. Americans and Europeans assumed these values are so obviously central to their security and prosperity, that emerging powers like China, Russia, and Arab states would surely adopt them. But those who lead China, Russia, and most Arab states believed they could build prosperity within authoritarian systems. Turkey’s Recep Erdogan has responded with a heavy-handed bid for more power. Brazil’s politics is weighed down with a cynicism generated by corruption and a polarised society.
In 2018, these trends will continue, and international politics will become a battle of every nation, and government, for itself.
Third, the nature of international trade continues to evolve. As Trump backs the US away from new commitments, China’s government will continue to advance the Belt-Road project to extend its economic — and, therefore, political — influence across Asia and into Europe. This is the project that reveals China as the one significant world power with a coherent global development strategy for the 21st century.
Finally, it is in cyberspace that the global balance of power is shifting most quickly. Here is where politicians within countries can attack one another with new weapons. Here criminals can create new forms of crime, hackers can expose the deepest secrets of governments, and terrorists can inspire and direct attacks in new places.
In 2018, we’ll begin to see more clearly that connections between politics, security, and our economies are changing more quickly and becoming more complex than we might have imagined when 2017 began. Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and author of Superpower: Three Choices for America’s Role in the World. The views expressed are personal