Sowing declines, deficient June rain triggers farm worry
NEW DELHI: Rainfall in the first month of monsoon was below the mark, with the country recording a 5% deficit as of June 30, according to data from the Met department. Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat, east UP and west UP were the worst hit and the overall deficit is likely to widen further, experts said.
The slowdown in the monsoon has impacted progress in the sowing of kharif crops. According to agriculture ministry, till June 30, farmers have planted crops on 16.5 million hectares, about 46% less than last year.
Rainfall in the first month of monsoon was below the mark, with the country recording a 5% deficit as of June 30, according to data from the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
Saurashtra and Kutch in Gujarat, east Uttar Pradesh, and west Uttar Pradesh were the worst hit, reporting a deficit of 86%, 59% and 48% respectively as of July 1.
The overall deficit is likely to widen further in coming days, meteorologists said, as heavy rain remains concentrated along the Himalayan foothills. Delhi and neighbouring areas could see showers in isolated areas on Tuesday, which will peter out in the second half of the week.
“After June 12 there was a long hiatus; only around June 25 did the monsoon advance,” DS Pai, senior scientist at IMD, Pune, said. The pause in advance of the monsoon delayed rains in Bihar, UP and Madhya Pradesh.
A slowdown in the monsoon has impacted progress in the sowing of kharif crops in various parts of the country. According to data from the agriculture ministry, till June 30, farmers have planted crops on 16.5 million hectares, about 46% less than levels at the same time last year.
Normally, by June-end, about 22.5 million hectares are sown. The total sown-area under kharif crops is about 106 million hectares. Sowing is expected to pick up in July. So far, the area under cotton is tracking 14% less than last year, while planting of oilthat seeds has been 11.5% less, the agriculture ministry data showed. Year-on-year, sowing of soya bean has been 7% less, while that of groundnut is 5% lower than last year. Usually mid-tropospheric cyclonic circulations and low pressure systems from the Bay of Bengal bring precipitation to Gujarat even before monsoon rains arrive, but this year that has not happened in Gujarat.
In its monsoon forecast IMD had forecast rainfall in the fourmonth period from June to September to be 97% of the long-period average with a low probability of deficient rainfall.
According to the Met’s classification, the monsoon is considered normal if the rains are between 96-104% of the 50-year average of 89 cm, so the expected rainfall was already in the lower end of the normal range.
The poor showing in June sparked fears that if July rains don’t make up for the deficit, India could be grappling with a below normal monsoon this year. “We expect July will be better, should make up for the deficit. The IMD forecast rains in July to be 101% of the long period average,” Pai said.
The monsoon trough, a low pressure belt running west to east along the Himalayas, is currently located along the Himalayan foothills over north of India and Nepal, bringing rain to the foothills along UP, Bihar and the north east.It is expected to slide back over central India to its normal position by July 6-7th and bring rainfall to the northern plains, central India and Gujarat.
The other cause for anxiety is emerging El Nino conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, a phenomena that is linked with poor monsoon, although some experts say this shouldn’t matter. “We don’t expect El Nino to emerge before September; it will be weak so we don’t expect any impact on the south west monsoon,” Mahesh Palawat, senior vice president and meteorologist at Skymet Weather, a private forecaster, said, “but we are keeping a close watch.”