Sharif’s fall boosts Imran Khan’s ascendency

THE TUSSLE BETWEEN PMLN AND THE ESTABLISHMENT IS THE LAST THING PAKISTAN NEEDS WHEN IT NEEDS TO FOCUS ON ECONOMY

The sentencing of Nawaz Sharif was not entirely unexpected .

His daughter and likely successor Maryam along with her husband, Muhammad Safdar, have also been sentenced. For Maryam, this verdict is a major blow as it ends her immediate chance of holding office. She was due to contest for elections from a safe seat in Lahore, Sharif’s stronghold. Maryam had emerged as a fiery leader in defending her father’s quest for civilian supremacy. Her critics, however, are aplenty. Not unlike India, Imran Khan’s supporters especially in the middle classes, castigate her as a symbol of dynastic politics.

The anti-corruption court’s verdict came 20 days before Pakistan goes to polls. Sharif’s party, which was leading the opinion polls until recently, faces a new challenge. With its key leaders sentenced and disqualified, the voter base will not be mobilised.

Opposition leader Imran Khan can claim victory as he had been pursuing this case vigorously in the courts and on the streets. That Khan is backed by the establishweeks, ment is a well-known fact but there is a sizeable segment of public opinion in Pakistan that considers the Sharif dynasty as a venal representation of old politics of privilege and patronage. It is a separate matter that in recent Khan has been accepting defectors from Sharif’s party to boost his party’s chances of forming a coalition government.

Currently, it is Sharif’s younger brother Shehbaz who is leading the race and is a contender for the PM’s slot. He rejected the verdict and hours later Sharif expressed his strong reservations about the verdict.

The setback will certainly garner a sympathy wave within Sharif’s voter base. But it is not likely to influence swing voters who may conclude that power and ability to distribute patronage may slip away from the Sharifs.

In short, this is good news for Khan, whose chances of rising to power have increased manifold.

Sharif’s imminent return, unless he changes his decision, is likely to escalate political tensions. Whether in jail or outside, he will be a force to reckon with.

But one thing is clear: he is not returningtopoweranytimesoon.

If anything the polarisation between the PML-N and the establishment is the last thing Pakistan needs, when it needs to focus on challenges faced by the economy.