India needs a national flood management plan
With more than 15% of the Indian landmass prone to floods, we need a realtime flood prediction competency
The floods said to be Kerala’s worst in nearly a century have resulted in more than 400 deaths, forced almost a million people into relief camps, and caused over ~20,000 crore of financial losses. One silver lining amid the catastrophe is the solidarity displayed by our countrymen from across the world, irrespective of their place of birth, their religious or political leanings.
Barring a few isolated incidents, the general public as well as the government responded in an exemplary manner. The same, however, cannot be said about the set of systems and practices we have in place to predict or prepare for large-scale disasters.
A United Nations global assessment report on disaster risk estimates that India’s average annual economic loss from disasters could be as high as $ 9.5 billion, with floods accounting for close to $ 7 billion. Another World Resources Institute (WRI) report says India has more of its annual GDP exposed to river flooding each year than any other country, with the exposure potentially increasing to $154 billion by 2030. Despite these alarming numbers, we still lack a holistic flood management plan. Some blame the faulty and unscientific dam management, and some the record rainfall in August. Escalating climate change impact too is believed to have played a significant role in unexpected weather-related aberrations. The effects of the floods would certainly have been mitigated were the water in the 35 major dams released in a phased manner. The state, nonetheless, lacked the flood simulation and forecasting tools to identify the areas that could be submerged when combinations of several of the larger dams were opened simultaneously.
The state also lacked an effective emergency alert and evacuation plan. These shortcomings are, however, not just endemic to Kerala. According to a 2017 report by the Comptroller and Auditor General of India, only 7% of more than 5000 dams in India have an emergency response plan. The lone flood forecasting agency in India, the Central Water Commission (CWC), also failed to provide a timely warning.
India’s response to this unmitigated disaster reveals that as a nation we have the innate ability to support the anguished among us, even during the darkest of days. Nevertheless, with more than 15% of the Indian landmass prone to floods, the requirement is to create a comprehensive national flood management plan, including real-time flood prediction competency as well as optimal warning, evacuation, and damage control capacity.