In this race, time is of the essence
This year’s monsoon mayhem is a trailer of things to come
The Centre on Monday said that 1,400 people have died from rain and flood related causes since May 28, a number that is almost as high as the 1,480 and the 1,420 deaths due to similar causes in 2015 and 2016, making this year’s monsoon the most destructive in recent years. The monsoon mayhem makes two issues clear. One, hotter weather has had an impact on monsoon precipitation. And second, data provided by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) shows that the four monsoon months (June 1 to September 30) do not witness a uniform intensity of rains and that in many cities the entire rainfall of the season occurs within a short period. Both aspects have been corroborated by a study by researchers from the School of Earth, Ocean, and Climate Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology, Bhubaneswar. Their study shows that rise in surface temperatures (due to climate change) is likely to boost monsoon depressions over India, increasing the intensity of extreme rainfall events such as the ones we witnessed in Kerala, and now in Nagaland.
If extreme rainfall events are the new normal, then certain things need to be fixed. First, the weather information management system has to be improved (Kerala and IMD are already sparring over whether necessary severe weather warnings were given to the state on time). Second, block-level forecasting has to be introduced (an experimental programme in 200 blocks is underway). Third, a nationwide flood and dam management policy needs to be adopted. Fourth, agriculturists have to get necessary information at the right time about floods, and also on climate resistant crops. And fifth, climate resilience should be factored in as a variable while planning cities and towns.
By the government’s calculations, extreme weather events are costing India $9-10 billion every year and will have an impact on agricultural productivity from 2020. Severe weather events will also hit the poorest segments hardest. This may well have political implications, but having the right policies and institutions in place may help mitigate the effects of such shocks, to some extent. In this race, time is of the essence.