A sign of things to come in 2019?

The results of the polls will be a test of fortune for many leaders

Tuesday’s results for the five state elections will have significant implications for national parties and will offer an insight into the key issues that concern the electorate. But, at the same time, the election outcome will have messages for top leaders, and will provide a sense of how they are being perceived by the electorate.

Narendra Modi has been the Bharatiya Janata Party’s most successful vote-winner in the party’s history. This set of elections is different for the BJP as strong local faces in three major states of Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Rajasthan and local performances — of state governments and legislators — is being judged. But, at the same time, the outcome will have a message for Mr Modi. If the BJP wins, the central government’s welfare schemes and his last minute campaign push should be credited. But if the BJP loses a majority of the states, it will be clear that Mr Modi is no longer being judged on intent, integrity and promises, but on delivery and governance. The elections are perhaps far more crucial for Rahul Gandhi. He took over the party exactly a year ago, led a vigorous campaign in Gujarat, displayed agile thinking in Karnataka to prevent a BJP government, has been aggressive and sharp against the Modi regime, and built ties with the rest of the Opposition. But Mr Gandhi has not delivered victories at the ballot box. If the Congress wins, a range of local leaders — especially Ashok Gehlot and Sachin Pilot in Rajasthan; and Kamal Nath and Jyotiraditya Scindia in MP — will deserve credit. But Mr Gandhi would have arrived as a mass leader. If the Congress is not able to win a majority of the states, Mr Gandhi’s ability to lead a Mahagathbandhan (grand alliance) will come under question.

The election is also important for a set of regional leaders. And in Telangana, a win for K Chandrashekhar Rao will see him emerge as an important voice in national politics. A win for the Maha Kootami, on the other hand, will make N Chandrababu Naidu a key figure in the Opposition alliance. While it is important not to extrapolate the outcome to interpret what will happen in 2019, it will have an impact on the fortunes of many leaders.