THE PROLIFERATION OF POPULAR PROTESTS
The world isn’t fair. But that’s not new; what’s new is the speed and intensity with which popular fury at this unfairness is boiling over into sustained political protests.
At the heart of this anger is the widespread perception that policymakers are acting in the interests of elites. Protests feature regularly in developing countries, where people suffer when governments fail to provide basic services. The lack of developed political institutions means that non-traditional actors—protestors very much among them — tend to move the political needle.
In the last few weeks, Egypt has seen its biggest protests since the Arab
Spring, prompted by allegation of corruption by President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi and the military, and exacerbated by lower subsidies and higher taxes for the poor. In Lebanon, a WhatsApp tax on online communications prompted protests that got quickly engulfed by broader concerns, ultimately forcing Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri to resign. Iraq’s president Adel Abdul Mahdi hasn’t fared much better. His country is gripped by protestors, exhausted by high unemployment and lacklustre public services. In Ecuador, the decision of president Lenin Moreno to scrap longstanding fuel subsides powered protests, which led him to reverse his decision, a victory for protestors but a loss for fiscal discipline.
Historically, protests have tended to be less effective in wealthier countries — both because politics is more entrenched, and because wealthier populations can wait for the next election to register their political dissatisfaction. Increasingly though, voting booths are no longer capable of acting as political release valves.
In Chile, Sebastian Pinera’s 3% hike in metro tickets kicked off protests in one of Latin America’s wealthiest and most stable countries. People came out to protest low pension and the high costs of basic services, only to be enraged further by the decision to deploy the military in a country with a history of military dictatorship. The Gilets Jaunes movements in France brought Paris to a near standstill almost a year ago, and while the movement has largely petered out, upcoming pension reform and the anniversary effect risk reigniting the movement. In Spain, the recent decision by the country’s Supreme Court to hand down long jail sentences to Catalonia leaders who spearheaded the 2017 independence referendum touched off massive protests, complicating upcoming elections.
Hong Kong protests have continued for almost six months. Yet of all these protests, it’s those in Hong Kong that seem to pose the least threat to their respective government (albeit indirectly) in Beijing, which has the luxury of simply waiting it out. In our day of widespread political frustration, is democracy still the best form of government going forward? Democracy has thrived in recent decades as more and more people began contributing to their country’s economic productivity, making it easier for them to get a larger say in politics. But now globalisation is retreating and technology has begun displacing labour.
It is too early to say that democracy’s best days are behind it. But when you combine these structural problems with a global economy that’s slowing down, it makes it even harder for governments to address popular concerns. If there is one thing that unites the world today, it’s anger at governments. That should worry both governments and the people raging against them. Ian Bremmer is the president of Eurasia Group and GZERO Media and author of Us vs. Them: The Failure of Globalism The views expressed are personal