CORONAVIRUS CASES LIKELY TO BE AROUND 1,700: STUDY
At least 7 new coronavirus cases reported; UK analysis says a lot more people may have been infected
BEIJING: At least seven new cases of the Wuhan coronavirus were reported on Saturday, including three unconfirmed cases in Shanghai and Shenzhen even as an analysis by London’s Imperial College said over 1,700 people may have been infected. Chinese health officials confirmed four more cases in Wuhan in central China on Saturday, taking the official number to 47, including two deaths. Three more cases had already been reported in Thailand and Japan. Meanwhile, a study by Imperial College’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis said the coronavirus could have infected a lot more people.
BEIJING: At least seven new cases of the Wuhan coronavirus were reported on Saturday, including three unconfirmed cases in Shanghai and Shenzhen even as an analysis by London’s Imperial College said many more people may have been infected than the number currently reported.
Chinese health officials confirmed four more cases in Wuhan in central China on Saturday, taking the official number to 47, including two deaths. Three more cases had already been reported in Thailand and Japan.
The Hong Kong-based South China Morning Post (SCMP) reported that three suspected cases had been detected in the financial capital Shanghai and in the city of Shenzhen in southeastern China. Officials declined to confirm the three cases.
Meanwhile, a study by Imperial College’s MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis said the coronavirus could have infected a lot more people.
The current figure might well be over 1700, the researchers said.
Authorities in China will be wary of a full-scale outbreak as millions of Chinese are travelling within and outside the country for the Chinese New Year holidays?
Until Friday, authorities in Wuhan had traced 763 people who had close contact with the patients until Wednesday night; 313 of them are under medical observation, according to state media. Is that all, really?
Given the fact that the WHO and Wuhan health authorities haven’t ruled out the possibility of human-to-human transmission. There could more cases, said the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis. Their researchers fear that there are way many more infected with the virus.
“We estimate that a total of 1,723 cases of 2019-nCoV in Wuhan City... had onset of symptoms by January 12, 2020,” the Centre said in an analysis released on Saturday.
The estimate is based on Wuhan’s population of 19 million, a mean 10-day delay between infection and detection and a four-to-five day delay from the onset of symptoms to detection and hospitalisation.
The five researchers involved in the report took into account the total volume of international travel from Wuhan over the last two months, which stood at 3,301 passengers per day.
“It is likely that the Wuhan outbreak of a coronavirus has caused substantially more cases of moderate or severe respiratory illness than currently reported,” the report said.
“The estimates presented here suggest surveillance should be expanded to include all hospitalised cases of pneumonia or severe respiratory disease in Wuhan area and other well-connected Chinese cities.”
The cases of the new coronavirus infection have been linked to exposure at a seafood market in Wuhan that has been closed since January 1.