Should Pant & Rahul both be in India’s T20 XI?
Based on the numbers, not only should Pant and Rahul both be in but they should be two of the first names on the team-sheet
LONDON: Ahead of India’s first T20 against New Zealand at Eden Park on Friday the major selection discussion surrounded the battle for the gloves that had materialised between Rishabh Pant and KL Rahul.
Ultimately, a fifty for Rahul in the last ODI against Australia where he batted at number five and took the gloves, was enough for him to win the battle.
Not only was Pant displaced as T20 keeper but he couldn’t find a place in the team with Manish Pandey and Shreyas Iyer assuming positions in the middle order. So, after a prolonged run in the side Pant—one of the most talented young batsman in India—found himself out of the team.
The very fact that India have reached this point is quite extraordinary. Based on the numbers at least, not only should Pant and Rahul both be in the eleven but they should arguably be two of the first names on the team-sheet.
This is a fascinating era for selection. The arrival of a third format in the form of T20 cricket has coincided with the arrival of big data in selection with numbers playing an increasingly prominent role in team building.
NOT THE WHOLE STORY
However, the difficulty with T20 cricket is that while conventional statistical measures such as averages, strike rates and economy rates are useful, they do not tell the whole story. Data in the T20 format, more so than any other, is heavily dependent on circumstance. A wicket in the first over, for instance, is far more valuable than a wicket in the twentieth.
By conventional statistics Rahul and Pant are very good T20 players. Since 2017 and across all T20s Rahul averages an elite 33 balls per wicket and scores at a very good run rate of 8.81 runs per over, Pant meanwhile averages a typical 22 balls per wicket and has a spectacular run rate of 9.53 runs per over. The scatter graph shows how Pant, and especially Rahul, are outlier players by these measures.
CricViz’s ‘True’ statistics are designed to more accurately analyse players by contextualising performance.
True statistics compare the performance of a player in a specific over of the innings to the expected level of performance in that over on aggregated records.
For example, if a batsman scores eight runs in the first over of the innings he would register a True Run Rate of +1 because the first over, on average, costs seven runs. But if he scored eight in the seventeenth over his True Run Rate would be -1 because that over typically costs nine runs. These figures are aggregated across an entire career and over averages are adjusted yearon-year.
Pant’s fairly typical dismissal rate of 22 balls per wicket is reflected in his True Dismissal Rate of +1.11 but his superb run rate of 9.53 is reflected in his True Run Rate of +1.96—the best of any Indian batsman since 2017.
Rahul excels in both measures; returning a True Run Rate of +1.44, the third best of any Indian and a True Dismissal Rate of +10, the eighth best of any
Indian. The combination of these True statistics show Pant to be an exceptionally quick scorer, albeit one that gets out at a fairly typical rate. Rahul meanwhile manages to combine the best of both worlds with excellent figures in terms of scoring and dismissal rate.
Boiling these two numbers down into one figure is possible using CricViz’s Match Impact, a measure which unequivocally illustrates why Pant and Rahul should both be in India’s T20.
MATCH IMPACT
Match Impact operates in a similar way to True Run and Dismissal rates but is more advanced: building in more information about the match such as the current score and the venue being played at to produce expected scoring and dismissal rates in greater detail. Final outputs are then adjusted to reflect the standard of cricket and are weighted for recency. Match Impact prescribes each player a value in runs, reflecting their ability above that of an average player.
By this measure Pant has a projected batting impact of +6.7 runs per game, meaning he is not only the top projected batsman in India, he is the fourth best batsman on the planet, only behind AB de Villiers, David Warner and Andre Russell. India’s captain Virat Kohli, returns a projected impact of +5.7 runs, only fractionally above Rahul at +5.5. Pant’s struggles in international T20— where his impact has essentially been neutral—is offset by his extraordinary level of performance in the IPL.
The numbers are clear: the fact that both Rahul and Pant are wicket-keepers should not mean they are pitted against one another for a place in the team. They are both, without question, two of India’s best batsmen in the twenty over format.
PANT’S FAIRLY TYPICAL DISMISSAL RATE OF 22 BALLS PER WICKET IS REFLECTED IN HIS TRUE DISMISSAL RATE OF +1.11 BUT HIS SUPERB RUN RATE OF 9.53 IS REFLECTED IN HIS TRUE RUN RATE OF +1.96