Extended monsoon likely this year: IMD
Rainfall is likely to be deficient until Sept 13 in the country, before intensifying after Sept 17
NEW DELHI: Monsoon rains are likely to enjoy another extended run this year in keeping with the trend over the past decade, the India Meteorological Department said Monday, emphasising that rainfall in September is likely to range between normal and above normal as the fourmonth weather phenomenon prepares for a late withdrawal.
Rainfall is likely to be deficient at least until September 13 in most parts of the country, including northwest and central India, before intensifying after September 17, according to the IMD’s extended range forecast. Normally, withdrawal of the monsoon begins on September 17 when the rains start reducing across the country until a complete withdrawal on October 15.
But this year, the IMD’s extended range forecast shows extensive and heavy rains along the west coast between September 11 and 24 and then until October 1 over several parts of central India, with complete withdrawal likely after October
15. An extended withdrawal process of the monsoon has become the norm over the past 10 years, officials say.
“We indicated in our weather update last week that withdrawal of monsoon may begin from western parts of Rajasthan in the week ending September
18. But we are also expecting a low-pressure area to develop over west-central Bay of Bengal around that time,” IMD director general M Mohapatra said.
“So, while withdrawal of the monsoon may begin, we are still studying as to when it’s likely to withdraw completely. Withdrawal is likely to be extended. We are expecting normal to above normal rain in Kerala, Karnataka and coastal areas of Maharashtra around and after September 17,” he added.
According to the new monsoon onset and withdrawal dates released by the IMD in April factoring in the trend of delayed monsoon withdrawal, the normal date for the monsoon to begin withdrawing is September 17; it withdraws completely by October 15. The dates were September 1 and October 15, respectively, until last year. The new onset date is based on an analysis of monsoon data from 1961 to 2019 and withdrawal date on data from 1971 to 2019 by scientists at the IMD, Pune.
Last year the monsoon started withdrawing on October 9, against the normal date of September 1, and prolonged rains brought a deluge in parts of Maharashtra, Kerala and Bihar in August when rainfall usually reduces. Monsoon completed its withdrawal by October 17.
“It’s very difficult for us to say immediately when will it stop raining completely and withdrawal can be announced. We are seeing a pattern of delayed monsoon withdrawal in recent years which needs to be investigated carefully,” Mohapatra said, adding that intra-seasonal variability of the monsoon has been high this year with rainfall excessive in June and deficient in July. August recorded excess rain by a high margin.
“This year a good monsoon should have helped farmers and the output must be very good. We don’t have an assessment as to how it will impact the economy,” said M Rajeevan, secretary, ministry of earth sciences.
Monsoon rains are critical because nearly 60% of India’s net arable land lacks irrigation and half the population depends on agriculture for a livelihood. With good rains, spending by rural consumers on manufactured items goes up, and boosts factory output.