FIRST HALF: A CLEAR DAMP SQUIB

The first half of 2020 can surely be termed ‘highly disappointing’ on all counts, and the movie business is no different. The industry’s net collections in this half has been only around ₹780 crore with hits such as Tanhaji: The Unsung Warrior (almost ₹280 crore) and Baaghi 3 (₹97 crore), and average ones such as Shubh Mangal Zyada Saavdhan (close to ₹63 crore) and Malang (₹60 crore).

In comparison, 2019’s first half saw Bollywood apparently make a whopping ₹2,400 crore, buoyed by hits like Uri: The Surgical Strike, Bharat, Gully Boy, Kabir Singh, Kesari, Total Dhamaal and De De Pyaar De. This was 10% higher than the first half of 2018, which reportedly saw collections of ₹2,200 crore.

“It has been nothing less than a disaster. The movie business did extremely well in 2018 as well as 2019, so the expectation was of a fantastic first half. But everyone knows what has transpired,” says trade analyst Taran Adarsh, adding, “Also, don’t forget that we have lost out on a lucrative summer vacation period due to the pandemic, so the film business is in real doldrums.”

While only a handful of films managed to release before the Covid-19 lockdown forced theatres to shut, except a few successes, the first half saw big disappointments such as Street Dancer 3D, Love Aaj Kal and Chhapaak. “Apart from Tanhaji and the aboveaverage Baaghi 3, nothing did well in the first quarter [of 2020] as well. I feel the business in that period also could have been a little better,” says trade expert Komal Nahta, who puts losses in the last two-and-ahalf to three months, including the exhibition sector, at ₹3,000 crore.

Interestingly, last year’s first half also saw Hollywood hits such as Avengers: Endgame (₹373 crore) and Captain Marvel (₹85 crore). “It would be unfair to look at the ‘first half’ of the year because the second quarter doesn’t even exist as the theatres have been shut. It’s been extremely bad. Thankfully, however, things are getting back to normal and people would want to go out and experience movies too,” says exhibitordistributor Akshaye Rathi.

Although there are indications that cinema halls may get permissions to reopen around mid-july, experts are concerned. “What will theatres run when the government gives the green signal? Almost 12-14 films, including the ones already announced, would have gone to OTT platforms. So, where will the new content come from?” says Nahta.

However, Rathi remains optimistic. “Mark my words, the exhibition sector will rise like a tsunami wave,” he adds.