Cyclone Tauktae intensifies over Arabian Sea
Weather dept says the cyclone is expected to cross the Guj coast between Porbandar and Naliya on May 18
NEW DELHI: Cyclone Tauktae (pronounced as Tau’Te) is likely to intensify into a ‘very severe cyclonic storm’ in the next 12 to 15 hours with a wind speed of 120 to 130 kmph gusting to 145 kmph, according to the India Meteorological Department.
It is also expected to move north north-westwards and cross the Gujarat coast between Porbandar and Naliya as a very severe cyclonic storm around May 18 afternoon or evening.
Tauktae intensified very rapidly from a depression to a cyclone on Friday. “The cyclone track is very similar to the 1998 Gujarat cyclone except that storm had crossed Kandla. We noticed rapid intensification of Tauktae because of various favourable atmospheric and oceanic parameters,” said Sunitha Devi, in charge, cyclones at IMD.
Independent experts said rapid intensification of cyclones over Arabian Sea is linked to a marked rise in sea surface temperatures due to climate change. “The frequency and intensity of cyclones in the Arabian Sea have increased in recent years. This is because of the rapid warming that has made the relatively cooler Arabian Sea (compared to the Bay of Bengal) a warm pool region that can actively support cyclone formation. Climate projections indicate that Arabian Sea will continue warming under increased carbon emissions, resulting in more intense cyclones in the future,” said Roxy Mathew Koll, a climate scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology on Saturday.
There were two more cyclones in the past with similar tracks according to OP Sreejith, scientist and head, Climate Monitoring and Prediction Group (CMPG) at IMD Pune. One in 1933 between May 13 to 19 and another in 1975 between May 20 to 21. The 1998 Gujarat cyclone had killed over 4,000 people.
“Conditions are extremely favourable for its (Tauktae’s) rapid intensification. Ocean heat potential is above normal; sea surface temperatures are 1-2 degree C above normal… We should be prepared,” Sunitha Devi had said on Thursday.
Agencies are facing multiple challenges of maintaining Covid-19 protocol, evacuation efforts during a pandemic and the risks from Tauktae itself. Last year, super cyclonic storm Amphan had formed in the pre-monsoon season and crossed the West Bengal coast over Sundarbans on May 20. It claimed over 90 lives and about 4,000 livestock mainly in West Bengal.
According to WMO, Amphan is estimated to be the costliest tropical cyclone on record in the North Indian Ocean with economic losses of approximately US$14 billion.
“Cyclone Tauktae has arrived at an already critical time when Covid-19 cases are very high, and communities are struggling in most of our western coastal states. As the cyclone moves alongside the entire coastline, it will trigger very heavy rainfall in a number of places, till it finally hits land in Gujarat on May 18, as per current forecasts... we are most worried about flash floods that it can trigger, creating devastation in places already battling Covid-19...,” said Anshu Sharma, Co-founder, Sustainable Environment and Ecological Development Society.