Mamata enters the 2024 race
Banerjee’s ambitions are clear. But these will collide with hard political reality
Emboldened by both her electoral victory against the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), and the persistent disarray in the Congress, West Bengal chief minister and Trinamool Congress chief, Mamata Banerjee, visited Delhi this week. The timing of her visit (during the monsoon session of Parliament), political meetings (including with Sonia and Rahul Gandhi), public statements, and the role of her party in the House (as the most belligerent anti-government force) add up to a simple political conclusion. Ms Banerjee sees a vacuum in the national Opposition space in the runup to 2024. And while she did not officially declare her ambitions (few politicians do), Ms Banerjee believes that she has the ability to pull diverse strands of the Opposition together, and, therefore, views herself as a possible prime ministerial candidate.
This plan seems to be based on two tactics. One, ensure a broad understanding among all non-BJP forces in a way that the dominant force in a state — be it the Congress, or in many cases, a regional party — is projected as the sole challenger to the BJP in that state. Two, Ms Banerjee is hoping to build her stature as well as relationships in a way where she is seen as the obvious candidate who has the track record, network and credibility to emerge as the face of such an alliance, either before or after the polls.
This plan has four challenges. One, it relies on arithmetic. And even if coordination between Opposition forces is better than it was in 2014 or 2019, it does not tackle the obvious question of chemistry. That can happen only through a common, acceptable leader so that citizens have an answer to that perennial question — Modi versus who? Two, Ms Banerjee may have her admirers, but she is a polarising figure and has increasingly been projected as “pro-Muslim” by the BJP ecosystem. Projecting her, or even the prospect of her as PM, may help her in Bengal but may alienate urban middle classes elsewhere who see her as a maverick, and also lead to Hindu consolidation. Three, unlike the Gujarat model, which ended up getting popular traction, the West Bengal model is not really an electorally resonant platform, yet. And finally, the Opposition’s performance hinges on how the Congress does in states where it is in direct bipolar competition with the BJP. The prospects of an improved Congress performance are dim. But if they do improve, the party is not going to cede leadership. Ms Banerjee has a tough climb ahead.