Rupee hits record low amid sustained rise in crude prices
MUMBAI: The rupee hit a record low against the US dollar on Thursday as the relentless surge in global crude oil prices raised concerns about a sustained rise in imported inflation, while choppy domestic shares also hurt. The partially convertible rupee touched a record low of 77.81 during the day. The previous low of 77.7975 was touched on May 17.
At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened lower at 77.74 against the greenback and finally settled at 77.76, down 8 paise over its previous close.
“There is possibly some bit of dollar selling by the central bank that is there, but they can only prevent day to day volatility, the direction for the rupee is clearly lower,” a senior trader at a foreign bank said.
The central bank has time and again reiterated that it only intervenes to arrest extreme volatility in the currency but does not target any specific levels. Traders said the rupee could eventually weaken towards 79/ dollar levels by end of fiscal year 2022/23 but the fall could be accelerated by firm crude oil prices.
Oil prices held firm near 13-week highs on Thursday after China reported stronger-thanexpected exports in May, although new Shanghai lockdown restrictions capped gains.
India imports nearly 85% of its oil requirements and high crude tends to push up domestic inflation while also widening the country’s trade and current account deficits.
The RBI raised its key repo rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday.
Foreign funds have sold stocks worth more than $23 billion so far in 2022 while they are net sellers of $2.1 billion in debt.
Bearish bets on Asian currencies eased on signs that China’s economic pain may abate with the relaxation of Covid-19 curbs, but analysts were still wary of future lockdowns and the direction of US monetary policy, a Reuters poll last week showed.
“Further depreciation in the rupee will be seen if levels around 77.80 start to be breached consistently. This will open targets of 78.25 for the rupee,” currency analysts at Emkay Global wrote in a note.