Repeating 2019 feat in Bihar a tall order for NDA, say experts
The NDA was the first off the blocks for the Lok Sabha elections, completing its seat sharing and ticket distribution to start high-pitch campaigning led by Prime Minister Narenda Modi well on time in an attempt to repeat its 2019 performance in 2024 in Bihar.
NDA had made a clean sweep in Bihar in 2019, winning 39 of the 40 seats. Repeating the formidable show in a state where BJP is yet to establish itself as the number 1 force despite remaining in power mostly since 2005 in alliance with JD(U) will mean the party has finally emerged to take the state mantle in 2024 Assembly polls also.
But experts are of the view feel that it may not be easy despite BJP’s call for 40 out of 40 in Bihar, though the NDA may still have a clear upper hand due to the edge it has in terms of the charisma of Narendra Modi, party’s strong organisational setup, ability to go in for carpet bombing of top leaders across the length and breadth of the state as the electioneering climaxes, the welfare schemes for the poor and the resources it has at its disposal.
“The biggest handicap for the NDA is that chief minister Nitish Kumar is not at his best and the Opposition RJD knows it. It’s attacking him more after his latest switch-over in January this year. Earlier, he supplemented the BJP, but that does not seem to be the case anymore, with age and related health issues catching up with the CM,” said DM Diwakar, former director of AN Sinha Institute of Social Studies.
“There seems to be an undercurrent against growing unemployment and price rise. Though BJP is banking on the Modi magic, the fact is that the NDA had reached saturation stage in 2019 and it will have to face the challenge of anti-incumbency. At many places, there have been reports of people throwing pointed posers to sitting MPs. I think the numbers for NDA will drop and JD(U) may end up being the biggest loser. RJD can only gain as it had no seat last time,” he said.
In the Grand Alliance (GA), RJD is heading the campaign revolving around Leader of Opposition Tejashwi Prasad Yadav so far and is striving to prevent election from getting polarised by hammering on issues like unemployment, price rise, education and health, just as it did in 2020 Assembly polls.
“BJP is not talking about the issues confronting the masses and accusing the Opposition for the problems. They have been ruling for 10 years and blame game will not do anymore. They should answer what they have done in the last 10 years, but they will not. The youth also know it,” is Tejashwi Yadav’s refrain.
Rajya Sabha MP and RJD leader Manoj Jha says the election was wide open in Bihar as well as the rest of the country and sensing the mood and the ground realities, BJP had resorted fo high-decibel campaigning in a bid to drown the remaining Opposition voices after implicating many of its leaders.
“But for the people who are at the receiving end, it is a classic case of once bitten, twice shy. Even by the law of averages, they have to fumble. It may be this time. People know and they have experienced how even the basics are being snatched from them in the name of growth and glamour. They will rise this time, silently though, to stop the BJP juggernaut and save the country,” he said.
In the 2020 Assembly election, Tejashwi had nearly pulled off an incredible show against the NDA on his own, making RJD the largest party with his promises on jobs, which the youth could identify with. For him the handicap is that though the RJD chief Lalu Prasad is available this time, his role in campaigning is likely to be limited due to his health issues. But just as Nitish Kumar is on the radar of RJD, Tejashwi is in the firing line of the JD-U.
Tejashwi’s attempts to take credit for the large-scale recruitment made during his stint as the deputy CM in the GA government is quickly dismissed by the JD-U, which terms it a part of Nitish Kumar’s 7-Resolves.
“People know what they are capable of. RJD got the opportunity for 15 years prior to 2005 and left the state in a shambles. People need to be reminded of the condition of the state before 2005, when people used to get indoors after dusk due to lawlessness and there was no way they could travel due to craters in place of roads. The development has taken place after 2005 in every sphere,” is Nitish Kumar’s common refrain.
“No election can be taken lightly till it is over. The NDA is strong, but we want to be stronger and a storm is building, which will blow away the Opposition. People of Bihar know what Nitish Kumar has done and how NDA has transformed the state from what it was prior to 2005. Bihar has reached the take-off stage after a lot of effort and the next five years will be crucial. The NDA government in both Centre and State in the next five years could provide the ideal launch to the state,” said Rajya Sabha MP and senior JD(U) leader Sanjay Jha, who is visiting Mithilanchal region, which had saved the NDA from embarrassment in the 2020 Assembly election after a debacle in 2015 when JD(U) and RJD were together.
BJP state president Samrat Choudhary is also optimistic that the Opposition would be swept away in the NDA wave as people were not ready to look beyond Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his work for the country and the poor.
“We are urging people to make it 40 out of 40 this time. In 2014, NDA was given 31 seats and in 2019, it got 39. Now the missing one has to be added this time and the people have made up their mind,” he said.