Do numbers bear out the theory of silent Muslim support for BJP in UP elections?
DECODING NUMBERS EC analysis shows that of the 42 Muslim dominated constituencies, 32 were won by the BJP
Following the decisive victory of the BJP in the 2017 UP assembly elections, the “where did the Muslim vote go” question is dominating the political discourse.
The fact is: there is no definite answer. Conjectures and anecdotal explanations set aside, data available in the public domain is inadequate to provide any empirical evidence to understand whether Muslims — constituting around 18% of UP’s population — voted for or against the BJP. Here is why.
The vote share of BJP in the 2017 elections was around 40%, two percentage points less than the 42% vote share it bagged in the 2014 Lok Sabha elections. If there were to be a “significant increase” in vote share from the Muslim community, that would imply an equivalent reduction from another section. But no claims about the “lost share” have been made.
In recent years, some small minority of Muslims have cast their ballots for the BJP. According to a paper published in the Economic and Political Weekly, 7% of the total Muslim population voted for the BJP in the 2012 assembly elections and 10% in the Lok Sabha elections of 2014. A similar proportion may have voted for the BJP this time around. But again, whether that share has increased or not, is not clear, due to limitations of available data.
Results data from the Election Commission of India (ECI) gives us a broad picture of voting patterns. We know the number of votes received by each candidate, which enables us to calculate interesting metrics like party-wise vote share and margin of victory, among other things. Constituency level data, which is available right now, is not enough to draw concrete conclusions about community-wise voting behaviour. Once finer data at the polling booth level is released, we will have a much better picture.
It is here that survey data would be helpful. Post-poll surveys conducted by Lokniti-CSDS have been the primary data source to answer nuanced questions about election outcomes in India, but, again, such data is not yet available to us.
An analysis of ECI data by HT shows that of the 42 Muslim dominated constituencies, 32 were won by the BJP. In 2007, the BJP won just six of these 42 seats, and just seven in the 2012 assembly elections.
Plus, the vote share of the BJP in these constituencies stood at 39.2%, just marginally less than the overall vote share. Does this indicate massive voting by Muslims in favour of the BJP?
“Whenever there are big majorities, winning parties perform well across all types of constituencies, following the overall trend,” says Rahul Verma of Lokniti-CSDS and the Department of Political Science at UC Berkeley. Like the BJP, BSP bagged the majority of these 42 seats in 2007 when it won the elections and so was the case with SP in 2012.
However, massive voting from Muslims in these constituencies is not a definite requirement for the BJP’s success. The historical voting pattern in UP tells us that high-tone election campaigns by so-called “secular” parties for Muslim support can polarise the election along religious lines. Then, two factors can explain the victory.
First, the Muslim vote may have fragmented among various parties and candidates. Second, religious polarisation may have caused a consolidation of the Hindu vote, which helps the BJP gain more votes. The BJP’s push in the election campaign to increase its base among the nonYadav OBC and the non-Jatav Dalit could have possibly triggered the consolidation, leading to victory in these seats.
“It is the Hindus who got together and voted en bloc for the BJP in this election, rising above caste and other identities,” said a source in the RSS.