Monsoons to be normal this year despite El Nino
India’s annual monsoon will be normal this year, the Met department said on Tuesday despite lingering possibilities of the disruptive El Nino weather pattern that led to back-to-back drought in 2014 and 2015.
The southwest monsoon is the lifeblood for India’s farm-dependent $2 trillion economy, delivering 70 percent of the country’s annual rainfall and is crucial for an estimated 263 million farmers.
“India is in for a normal monsoon which will be good for agriculture and economy,” KJ Ramesh, the director general of India Meteorological Department, told a news conference. IMD issues another updated forecast in June.
He said rainfall will be 96% of the long-period average with a margin of 5% error. India defines average, or normal, rainfall as between 96 percent and 104 percent of a 50-year average of 89 cm for the entire four-month season.
There is a 38% probability that the monsoon will be better than 96%, he added.
The forecast is critical to the government’s hopes of achieving a projected growth rate of more than 7.5% as a good harvest could lift rural incomes and boost spending on consumer goods.
Two-thirds of India’s population depends on farm income and nearly 60% of summer sown areas do not have assured irrigation. Summer crops account for nearly half of India’s food output, including rice, lentils, sugar, spices, mangoes and oilseeds.
The monsoon rains arrive on the southern tip of Kerala state by around June 1 and retreat from the western state of Rajasthan by September-end.
There are fears that an emerging El Niño could impact monsoon rains. The IMD, however, said a weak El Niño could emerge only towards the later part of the year.
“Even if there is an evolving El Nino it will impact the rainfall patterns,” said Jatin Gandhi of Skymet which has forecast 95% monsoon rain. “It’s the same forecast, different only by a percent.”
Reconciliation of the two AIADMK factions in Tamil Nadu appeared tentative on Tuesday as former chief minister O Panneerselvam stuck to his demand for the ouster of the ruling group’s jailed leader, VK Sasikala, and her influential clan.
Efforts to reunite the two warring factions began after ruling AIADMK (Amma) group’s deputy general secretary TTV Dinakaran faced arrest over a bribery charge. A nine-member team of the AIADMK (Amma) leaders has been formed to negotiate with the Panneerselvam camp to draw up a merger formula, party sources said.
But the Panneerselvam camp set conditions — Sasikala has to step down as general secretary, members of her family must be divested of all posts, and a probe should be instituted to know under what circumstances Jayalalithaa died. ››P4 Rape and death threats continue to fly across social media Dr Samir Parikh