It all hinges on the grand alliance
the RJD fell apart, the BJP has suddenly turned cold. With outside support Nitish would remain CM, but he realises that under a Modi dispensation things would not be the same as it was during the VajpayeeAdvani era when he had enjoyed a functioning autonomy in his alliance with the BJP. There is also no reason why a resurgent BJP should hand Nitish the post of the chief minister in 2020, when it can have a leader of its own.
Given the mood in India today, clearly, it will have to be someone with a clean image who can take on Modi in 2019. Backward and secular politics by itself, or politics of entitlement, where ‘social justice’ parties (be it the SP, RJD, INLD, or for that matter the Congress) depend on a single family, will not be enough of a draw for an India that is becoming increasingly young and aspirational. Gone also are the days when amassing wealth was passé in the name of secular politics.
Just as the continuation of the Mahagathbandhan is a better option for Nitish, so is it for Lalu. Out of power, the situation will become even more untenable for Lalu and his family.
In this situation, the best case scenario is for Tejashwi to resign in the larger interest of the Mahagathbandhan, and make a virtue out of a necessity. He is young with a future ahead of him and quitting at this stage, in the larger interest, will only enhance his stature. Nitish has not asked him to quit, but only to go to the people and tell his side of the story. What is more, if he decides to go back to the people, and contest again for his assembly seat, even resigning as MLA (as suggested by some), he might just win and that would be a political endorsement of his stand. Lalu knows only too well that he will have to fight politically to counter the charges that have been levelled against him and his family.
If the Bihar Mahagathbandhan cracks, the Opposition can forget about its chances in the 2019 polls. So, all the Opposition parties that want to craft an alternative to the BJP have a stake in what happens in Bihar in the coming days.