No serious challenge to PM Modi
It hardly merits recalling that in order to be acceptable to the electorate a party or alliance needs to have a strong organisational base and also a formidable popular leader. Although best placed among non-BJP parties, the Congress’ organisational clout has been eroding steadily in recent years. It has been virtually wiped out in most of north India by powerful regional formations that have steadily taken over the non-BJP space, particularly in UP.
The Congress’ second handicap is its leadership which has failed to energise the cadre (or whatever remains of that) as well as the general public. Any political observer today will conclude that Modi remains the tallest leader with high acceptability, outstripping even his party’s popularity at a national level.
WithmostelectionsinIndiahavingbecome almost presidential in nature, it is essential for parties to ensure a strong, popular face. Consequently, all regional parties have become virtually family-run organisations, dependent on the popularity of the patriarch or matriarch. While there are strong regional leaders in non-BJP parties — Mamata Banerjee in Bengal, Mulayam/Akhilesh Singh in UP, Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh and till recently, M Karunanidhi in Tamil Nadu to name just a few — they are all restricted to the confines of their respective states.
Till some years ago, the sentiment against the party ruling at the Centre was strong enough to enable relative lightweights like HD Deve Gowda to be chosen prime minister by a motley group of parties. For that matter Manmohan Singh was no political heavyweight and ruled for 10 years only because he had Sonia Gandhi’s unstinted backing, while the Congress was not in the kind of moribund state it is today.
But whenever there is a strong leader at the helm in the Centre, he or she can be electorally ousted either by fierce unpopularity as in the case of Indira Gandhi after the Emergency or by matching popular appeal. Looking at the gallery of regional leaders today, none fits the bill.
But politics abhors vacuum. Although it may take some time, a powerful leader is bound to emerge in the coming years to pose a serious challenge to the BJP and Modi. But for the present, the Opposition lacks a centre-forward and for that matter even a goalkeeper.