KHARIF CROPS’ OUTPUT LIKELY TO DIP 2.8%: GOVT ESTIMATES

Production of kharif crops this year is likely to be lower than last year, the agriculture ministry said in its first advance estimates, with the only exception being sugarcane. Production of foodgrains such as rice, pulses and coarse cereals is likely at 134.7 million tonnes in 2017-18, 2.8% below last year’s record crop of 138.5 million tonnes, ministry estimates showed.

Production of oilseeds — on which India is heavily import-dependent — is likely to fall by 7.7%, from 22.4 million tonnes in 2016-17 to 20.68 million tonnes in 2017-18. For cotton, despite 19% higher sowing year-on-year by farmers, production is estimated to fall from 33 million bales (one bale equals 170 kg) last year to 32.3 million tonnes in 2017-18 due to lower productivity. The lower summer crop is likely due to the uneven spread of the June to September south-west monsoon, which waters over half of India’s crop area lacking irrigation.

So far, the monsoon has seen a deficit of just 5% compared to the 50-year average, but data from the India Meteorological Department showed that till Sunday, about 212 of the 630 districts in India from where data is received daily, have seen deficit rains of at least 20% compared to normal, while 100 districts have seen excess rains of 20% or more compared to normal.

A lower summer crop in India means agriculture growth may slide from the high of 4.9% recorded in 2016-17 (following consecutive years of drought in 2014 and 2015) unless compensated by a higher winter (rabi) harvest and higher growth in non-crop sectors like forestry, fisheries and livestock.

“With a negative growth in kharif output, I would lower my estimates of 2.5% growth in agri sector in 2016-17; at best, we are looking at a four-year average growth of about 2% (2014-15 to 2017-18),” said Ashok Gulati, agriculture chair professor, Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations.

NEW DELHI: