Divided discourse in BJP’s Patidar fortress of Mehsana

Prosperity is poverty’s twin in the agriculturally rich area. Hardik’s Patidar Anamat Andolan Samiti (PAAS) has traction among jobless youth from families with smaller landholdings. Their sense of deprivation is relative, what with Mehsana being the umbilical root of top notch Gujarati entrepreneurs: Karsanbhai of the Nirma group, Gujarat Apollo’s Anilbhai and Vimal Industries Chandubhai.

They’re Patidars who made it big. The sheen of affluence they bequeathed their clansmen is but a half story. The flip part of it is the stir led by Hardik in which the Congress sees an opening in the constituency that has been the BJP’s citadel for decades. In the 1984 sympathy wave after Indira Gandhi’s assassination, Mehsana was one of the only two LS seats BJP could win across India.

At the agriculture produce market community (APMC), with an annual ₹351 crore turnover, voices recognise the gravity of stir. Functionaries did not put it beyond Modi’s personal appeal to set things right for the BJP. But they agreed as much with Rahul’s focus on unemployment and job losses after demonetisation.

“Unemployment is rampant among educated Patel youth. The quota lure could influence 30-40% youth in rural areas,” said APMC director Bhailal Bhai. “But who knows which side the tide will turn once Modi is out campaigning. We’ve doubts about the Congress’s ability to stay the course with equal vigour.”

Be that as it may, Rahul’s November 13 tour of the district was the first in many years by a Gandhi family member. The previous visit, inhabitants recall, was by Indira, his grandmother. “It shows some infusion of life in the Congress,” said an APMC member unwilling to be quoted.

But the point is whether the Congress has the energy, resources and the organisation to sustain and build on the emerging political space It will need considerable ingenuity to make new converts among the Patidars coexist with other social formations it’s eyeing, especially OBC Thakors and the Muslims.

The Patels who deeply distrust Muslims are in conflict as much with the OBCs over their quota demand. The fence-sitters need to be persuaded to start viewing the Congress as a reliable option to Modi who is another name for the BJP. The anti-incumbency is against CM Vijay Rupani, a Jain who replaced a Patel, not the PM.

A chat with Patidar youth at a local eatery was a tutorial of sorts in getting to know their mind. Half of them thought that as PM, Modi was better placed to work the Gujarati pride theme he so successfully invoked as CM. For the naysayers, however, the impending polls were more about the Patidar pride — and their potency in Gujarat’s power game!

Wagering on either proposition is hazardous at the moment. For the battle’s slowly shaping up in Mehsana. Closer to the polling date of December 14, the lines now drawn could radically alter.

AND WHETHER CONG HAS THE ENERGY, RESOURCES AND THE ORGANISATION TO SUSTAIN AND BUILD ON THE EMERGING SPACE