China’s growth story is an opportunity for India
New Delhi must firm up the MakeinIndia programme and prepare the economy to deal with the new situation
The Preamble of the new Constitution of the People’s Republic of China adopted at the Fifth Session of the Fifth National People’s Congress and promulgated for implementation by the Proclamation of the National People’s Congress on December 4, 1982, has a line tucked away in the second last paragraph: “The future of China is closely linked to the future of the world”. Chinese President Xi Jinping would have liked to amend it and say, “The future of the world is closely linked to the future of China”. He has, of course, stopped short of saying that.
China’s Constitution was amended twice, in 1988 and 1993. Both amendments were economic in nature. Xi Jinping has made the third amendment. The top man in China requires courage, absolute power, unbridled authority, command unquestioned loyalty and above all profess zero-tolerance for dissidence. The 19th People’s Congress has established Xi Jinping has all these.
Though Jiang Zemin and Hu Jintao added their trademark ideas, it was only Xi, after Mao, who added his thought and name to the Constitution. The implicit significance of this move is enormous. It was not a mere platitude when Xi remarked about the beginning of a new era in his opening address. Xi left nothing on his agenda to the imagination when he vowed that he sees China “moving closer to centre stage.”
Xi’s idea of a strong China is not only about replacing the US from that position but it also has a strong universal economic agenda and internal political dynamics.
What are the options for New Delhi after the 19th Congress? Evidently, maturity prevails in our relationship and both sides are constantly looking to increase confi- who undertook the mission to plunder wealth from trespassers as his source of earnings. So whoever would come in his way, he would not leave him without robbing him of his all belongings.
He knew that it was the only way to survive . We sometimes get deviated from our target and experience failure. We grudge and doubt our own actions and blame our fate in melancholy. We again fall back upon sayings such as: We cannot have more than that is written in our destiny.
Had it been the case, then we could have dence-building measures. Meanwhile, New Delhi is also busy strengthening its side of the scale in the balance of power equation.
There have been political exchanges at the highest possible level in the past three years. The Modi-Xi meeting and other engagements in Beijing and Moscow have paved the way for a clearer understanding of the intentions of the two leaderships. This could be one reason for the amicable resolution of the Doklam issue with no alarming fallout so far. As was expected, Doklam was not discussed in the 19th Congress. But the PLA’s statement welcoming the de-escalation and patting Xi in the back amplifies his control over the PLA and tells the world who calls the shots in Beijing. While there are indications that Washington expects New Delhi to toe its line on China and the Pacific, India has kept the US at a distance while recalibrating its foreign policy and strategic outreach. The Logistics Support Agreement was vetted thoroughly and signed as Logistics Exchange Memorandum Agreement, much to our advantage and with an emphasis on a reciprocal basis, more on the lines of ACSA that the US has with some of its NATO allies.
This has helped allay Beijing’s apprehensions of India’s shift towards the US as LSA was touted as part of Washington’s ‘contain China’ policy.
Needless to say, China is not all strength and no weakness. The decade-long increase in household savings due to people’s lack of faith and participation in economic programmes, huge and practically unmanageable non-performing assets, rampant corruption at all levels of the party and the People’s Liberation Army, unrest in Uyghur and Tibet and above all the mounting internal debt ratio are some of the issues that will give sleepless nights to Xi in his second innings. China’s debt service ratio, the proportion of interest and principal on loans that businesses owe against a country’s GDP, is now 38.6% which means more than $3.2 trillion of the GDP goes for debt repayment. Coupled with this is the inability of the economies of some of the countries in Asia, Africa, and south east Asia to repay the infrastructure debt.
China’s power trajectory and influence in India’s extended neighbourhood is both a challenge and opportunity for New Delhi to engage more with neighbours, firm up the Make in India programme and prepare the economy to deal with the emerging situation, be it economic growth or doom.
XI JINPING’S IDEA OF A STRONG CHINA IS NOT ONLY ABOUT REPLACING THE US FROM THAT POSITION. IT ALSO HAS A STRONG UNIVERSAL ECONOMIC AGENDA AND INTERNAL POLITICAL DYNAMICS
abandoned all our responsibilities in life and sat idle whiling away time while doing nothing.
With such a mindset, we could not move forward a single step. We will remain in the same position where we began. But life does not allow you to stop walking. Life is meant for walking, exploring and then discovering we are miles ahead of others.