‘Iranian Spring’ may not deliver
The protest could lead to more unrest. It’ll not weaken Tehran
There has been some heady talk of an “Iranian Spring” following the rare protests in several cities across the country, but it would probably be closer to the truth to say the demonstrations have triggered uncertainty about stability in the country and the region. The protests, initially fuelled by the Iranian government’s failure to fight corruption as well as disappointment that the 2015 nuclear deal did not lead to better economic conditions, began in a small way on December 28 at Mashhad, Iran’s second largest city, considered a bastion of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Events since then have shown that things could easily spiral out of control. Many of the protestors were young people – 60% of Iran’s population of 81 million is under 30, more educated than past generations and avid users of social media – who have been grappling with unemployment and the impacts of sluggish economic growth. There were chants of “death to the dictator”, a reference to Khamenei, as the protests assumed a political tone over the weekend.
Those talking of an “Iranian Spring” and backing the protestors, such as US President Donald Trump, are hoping the demonstrations will lead to the rise of more moderate forces or weaken the regime in Tehran so that it has less time to interfere in countries across West Asia. The reality is that the protests could lead to more unrest, especially if the clergy decides to use state forces to crack down.
India will be keeping a watch on the developments in Iran. Though New Delhi curtailed oil imports from Tehran following a row over the allocation of the Farzad-B gas field to a Russian company, Iran was the largest supplier of crude to India last year. Then there is Iran’s role in Afghanistan, where it is believed to be working in concert with Russia to strengthen links with the Taliban to counter US influence. Iran is also key to the development of a corridor centred round the Chabahar port that India hopes to use to circumvent Pakistan. If there is a wave of unrest in Iran, the ripples will also be felt in India.