3 leaders, a party, and all eyes on post-poll equations in Nagaland
In 2014, even as the chief minister of Gujarat was preparing to be the Prime Minister of India, the chief minister of Nagaland wanted to be a minister in the Government of India. And for that, despite pleas by his party to stick to the state, Neiphiu Rio decided he needed to become a Lok Sabha MP.
Rio won his Lok Sabha seat, and left Kohima, where he had been CM since 2003.
But the man from Gujarat, Narendra Modi, did not make the man from Nagaland, Rio, a minister. Ever since, while remaining an MP, Rio’s eyes have been set on state politics. This moment sparked a chain of events in Nagaland that will shape the state elections. Rio constituted one element in a triangular political establishment that is the Naga People’s Front (NPF), the ruling party of the state. Its two other leaders are party president, Shurhozelie Liezietsu, and chief minister, TR Zeliang.
All conversations around Nagaland’s electoral politics has at its heart this one dominant party, the ambitions of these three men, and the shifting dynamics between them. It has divided NPF; it has created political instability and a constitutional dispute; it has spawned newer parties; it has kept the BJP — a rising force in the state — alert; and understanding even the contours of elections in the state was difficult till the power battle between the three took a decisive turn late on Wednesday, the evening of January 17.
This is when Rio quit NPF, and moved to the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). But irrespective of what the prepoll dynamics look like, all actors in Nagaland acknowledge that alignments after the results may look entirely different.
THE TRIANGULAR DANCE
Up a slope, next to Hotel Japfu in Kohima, is the office of the Naga People’s Front.
On the first floor, S Akho Leyri, a general secretary of the party, explains how the feud evolved. After Rio left for Delhi, a majority of NPF MLAs supported Zeliang as chief minister. In January 2015, though, 23 MLAs — under the influence of Rio, Leyri suggests — sought to change the chief minister. They did not succeed. But internal rift deepened. Eventually, under the Election Commission’s instructions, a special convention of NPF was called. It was decided Shurhozelie would remain party president and Zeliang the chief minister. Round 1: the president and chief minister were united.
“The next round of instability was in February 2017, when we had to hold urban local body elections. The chief minister supported 33% reservation for women. But there were protests. Two were shot dead. And Zeliang had to resign,” says Leyri. This paved the way for Shurhozelie to take over as chief minster. Zeliang agreed, viewing it as a temporary option and hoping to come back. Round 2: the party president became chief minister, with the conditional support of the former chief minister.
Equations shifted rapidly when Shurhozelie began consolidating and wanted to continue as CM. Zeliang wanted the chief ministership back and he was supported by Rio. In July 2017, the Governor dismissed Shurhozelie and reappointed Zeliang — on the grounds that the former had lost the confidence of the house. Shurhozelie dismissed the legislators of the Zeliang camp; and Zeliang’s camp acted against Shurhozelie’s MLAs and claimed to be the rightful torch bearer of the NPF. They went to court against each other. Zeliang however remained chief minister, with the support of a majority of NPF MLAs, BJP and independents. Round 3: Zeliang had the support of Rio against Shurhozelie.
But through December-January, party circles were abuzz that Zeliang and Shurhozelie were reconciling to keep Rio, who was seeing the elections as a comeback opportunity, out.
Two party leaders — one close to the CM and one close to Shurhozelie — said that the reconciliation was based on five conditions: Zeliang will be the party’s chief minister face; Shurhozelie will remain the party president till 2020; both sides will withdraw cases against each other; suspended members from the Zeliang faction will be brought back in the party fold; and Rio will not be given a ticket for the assembly polls. A Kikon, NPF spokesperson, said, “The party president and CM are together. Rio is a national leader and should stay in Delhi.” And so, if the current moment is Round 4, Zeliang and Shurhozelie are back together again.
KOHIMA/DIMAPUR:
THE 2018 BATTLE
With Shurhozelie and Zeliang working together, Rio was left out. It is an open secret in Nagaland that Rio had, while being in NPF, helped create a new party, the Nationalist Democratic Progressive Party (NDPP). The NDPP is home to a number of high profile former bureaucrats. Rio, on paper, had disassociated himself from it. But this Wednesday, January 17, he formally quit NPF and joined the NDPP.
The state thus now has three key actors. The NPF of Shurhozelie and Zeliang; the BJP — which has steadily expanded its presence across all districts, is formally an ally of NPF but is contemplating contesting independently to capitalise on antiincumbency against the NPF; and the Rio-led NDPP. The Congress, which used to dominate the state till 2003, saw all its MLAs in the last assembly merge into NPF, and is now at its weakest.
But there remains a strong buzz that Shurhozelie and Zeliang’s alliance may not last. And Zeliang has kept his options open by engaging with the National People’s Party of the late PA Sangma, now led by his son Conrad. NPP, an important player in Meghalaya. NPP leaders confirm Zeliang and the party have been in contact. If he switches, the election could turn four-cornered, with the additional presence of independents in several seats. All of this means that the outcome could be fragmented and real political play for government formation will happen once the results are known. A BJP strategist says, “All options in Nagaland remain open.
It will depend on who has what strength post-polls. We are confident we will grow. And we can ally with whichever regional party or combination of regional parties possesses the numbers.” Given that the regional party which emerges strong will want to be on the right side of the central government, BJP’s presence in the next government is the only certainty about the polls.