It’s time India played hardball in the Maldives
New Delhi should implement sequential pressure and balance inducements with punitive measures
Despite the questionable election that brought President Abdulla Yameen to power in the Maldives in 2013, India has remained loyal to him in both good times and bad. But with the country witnessing another, even deeper, political crisis, New Delhi must now play hardball if it wants to be part of the solution that returns the Maldives to democracy, stability and its sphere of influence.
New Delhi’s patience has been running out for some time now. In his quest to fend off Western pressure, Yameen has been tilting towards China through a series of high-level visits, a free trade agreement, and tighter security cooperation. Unlike Nepal, Male also opted to support the Belt and Road Initiative without first consulting India.
It is the only one of all nine neighbouring countries that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has not visited yet. The current crisis could well be the last straw for New Delhi. It could put Maldives back on its democratic path by restoring its parliamentary, judicial and media freedoms, and also ensure a government that will heed to India’s special strategic and economic interests. To achieve this ideal scenario, India should implement sequential pressure that deploys mediation, sets clear targets contingent on red lines, and balances inducements with punitive measures. This must ensure that the Maldivian president commits to a democratic reset, including the immediate release or return of all political detainees, and free elections later this year.
New Delhi can explore a range of tools to make President Yameen agree and deliver on this roadmap. It can escalate the tone of its statements, including at the United Nations, and coordinate with like-minded countries to reduce Male’s diplomatic space. It can implement targeted sanctions against members of the ruling coalition. New Delhi can also facilitate the emergence of a more organised opposition, or activate assets to support popular protests and disrupt the government’s functioning. In an extreme scenario, India could execute a military intervention to stabilise the Maldives and ensure internal peace and order, as it did in 1988. Unlike a few years ago, conditions are now ripe to execute this strategy. On the one hand, while Male may hope Beijing will help it withstand Indian pressure, China is bound to ditch President Yameen as the increasingly uncertain benefits of supporting him begin to outweigh the rising costs of keeping him in power.
Beyond military power and humanitarian relief, India’s capacity to serve as a first responder to crises in the region also requires the strategic will and skill to help solve neighbouring countries’ political conflicts. After it failed to take such an initiative during the Rohingya crisis, the Maldives poses another test for India to act like a leading power. It is absolutely fine to feel low at some point in life because this sudden dip in mood is a part of human nature and emotional anatomy. One should not look down upon oneself during these low times and get discouraged.
Sometimes spending a little time with your low mood or crying your negativity out in a room can help you empty your heart only to fill it again but with love and positivity. It’s a sign of valour to identify and accept your situation and then work on it to bring that