The meaning of TDP’s exit

Local factors will increasingly determine political fortunes

Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister Chandrababu Naidu’s decision to pull Telugu Desam Party ministers out of the Bharatiya Janata Party-led National Development Alliance government proves the prescience of that old principle — all politics is local. Mr Naidu came back to power after a decade in 2014, riding on the deep anger and resentment against the Congress-led government for dividing Andhra Pradesh. The alliance with a rising BJP helped in giving him access to power at the centre. But two features of Andhra politics have become apparent over the past few years.

One, the Jagan Mohan Reddy-led YSR Congress is a formidable local rival for Mr Naidu. He has, through a sustained political campaign, alleged that Mr Naidu failed to get justice for Andhra after the division. In particular, he has focused on the special status demand. Two, unlike the earlier NDA regime, where the BJP was happy to rule the centre and let the TDP monopolise power in the state, the Narendra Modi-Amit Shah-led BJP sees a political opportunity in every state. The BJP has been aggressively expanding its own base in the state. Both these factors are understood to have played an important role in Naidu’s decision to finally break ranks. This allows him to cast the BJP and centre as the ‘enemy’ — a powerful card in Andhra where the resentment against Delhi for being divided up remains high.

As an important component of the NDA, the TDP’s decision has, however, had an impact nationally. The Opposition think that cracks and contradictions in the NDA are playing out. But it is important to look at the big picture. The TDP’s decision has little impact on the legitimacy and strength of the government in the Lok Sabha. But Mr Naidu is keeping his options open by not quitting the NDA. Still, it is true that the incident serves as a cautionary note to the BJP. If the 2019 elections throw up a slightly fragmented house, the party will need allies such as the TDP. The message from the exit is that each party is already in election mode, carefully thinking of local factors that will determine their political fortunes.