SPBSP alliance proves strong BJP’s rising star eclipsed at home
UP BYPOLLS Result shows that the combine, which stalled BJP’s march to victory in 1993 when it was riding high after the demolition of the Babri Masjid, can still play spoilsport in 2019
On the eve of Lok Sabha bypoll results, United Progressive Alliance (UPA) chairperson Sonia Gandhi hosted a dinner meeting in Delhi on Tuesday evening that was attended by leaders of two strong regional forces — Prof Ram Gopal Yadav of the Samajwadi Party (SP) and SC Mishra of the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) — signalling that the stage was set for a joint opposition onslaught against the resurgent Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the 2019 general elections.
Her initiative gets a boost by the SP-BSP alliance winning both bypolls in Uttar Pradesh on Wednesday — Gorakhpur, which was represented by chief minister Yogi Adityanath, and Phulpur, won by his deputy Keshav Maurya in 2014, in a first by the BJP. There are clear messages for all players. It’s a loss of face for both Yogi and Maurya as the state government gears up for a month-long showcase of its first year in office.
It shows the BJP that the SP-BSP combine, which had together stalled its march to victory in 1993 when it was riding high after the demolition of the Babri Masjid, can still play spoilsport in 2019. Much water has flown down the Gomti since the violent collapse of the SP-BSP coalition in 1995, after BSP chief Mayawati was allegedly manhandled by SP workers.
While Akhilesh has silenced his detractors who have been opposing his alliance moves — with the Congress in 2017 and the BSP in 2018 bypolls — the Congress may learn a lesson from its complete rout.
Mayawati, who stayed away from dinner meetings and alliances since the 1996 assembly polls, also extended support to the Samajwadi Party but neither addressed a meeting nor issued a statement in favour of alliance. It was seen as a local arrangement
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between the parties.
The BSP leadership,which often played truant till it realised its electoral weakness after the 2014 polls, perhaps decided to test the strength of SP-BSP alliance.
Now, a winning caste arithmetic under SP-BSP alliance can make UP tough for the BJP, which must be rattled by its defeat in Gorakhpur. It was the winning combination of the Nishad, Dalit, Muslim and Yadav communities that joined hands.
Political analyst Prof Badri Narain described it as a victory of the “sincere social alliance” between the two parties, whose workers came together. Though the BSP changed its strategy primarily because it does not contest bypolls, Akhilesh kept harping on the need for an alliance.
“My father once entered into an alliance with the BSP to defeat the BJP, now I am doing so,” Akhilesh said recently. He had also hinted at continuation of the alliance till 2019 polls though contentious issue like seat sharing may need some deft handling.
Interestingly, the alliance did not remain on paper. The cadre of both parties worked together to “teach arrogant BJP a lesson”.
But before jumping to conclusions, there are points to be taken note of. Phulpur, once the stronghold of the Congress and won by Jawaharlal Nehru thrice, was never a BJP bastion. Maurya won it for the first time in 2014.
But Gorakhpur is Yogi’s bastion. He represented the constituency five times since 1998 and before him, his guru mahant Avaidyanath.
Yogi faced a tough challenge in 1998 and 1999 elections but it was smooth sailing for him thereafter. Yogi also spent days chalking out strategies to retain the seat. PM Narendra Modi, who has been winning elections across the country, did not address a single public meeting in the two constituencies.
Political experts believe the grand alliance will now become a reality in UP where 80 seats would be up for grabs. The BJP and its allies picked up 73 of these seats the last time.
The concern for the party high command would now be about retaining the tally, if not increasing it to 80, as claimed by the CM.
Professor of political science at Allahabad University, HK Sharma, said he saw a possibility of a Grand Alliance before 2019 polls.
“The victory in the UP bypolls would give strength to the belief that together these political parties can take on the BJP despite its recent spate of successes,” Sharma said.
Political analyst and former vice-chancellor of Uttar Pradesh Rajarshi Tandon Open University MP Dube also saw the possibility of a ‘Maha Gathbandhan’ at the national level between SP, BSP, Congress and other parties before the 2019 elections.
Professor Anuradha Agarwal, who teaches political science at Allahabad University, said: “Treating Phulpur and Gorakhpur bypolls as successful experiments, a wider alliance between BSP and SP with the Congress and others also joining them now seems to be a reality, especially if they manage to beat the BJP. In the past, the SP and the Congress have tested their alliance, though not successfully. These victories in bypolls will drive them to form a bigger alliance before the general elections,” she adds.
The Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) rising star — Uttar Pradesh chief minister Yogi Adityanath — was defeated in his home turf on Wednesday.
The 45-year-old head priest of the Gorakhnath Mutt has emerged as India’s ruling party’s lead campaigner across states ion recent months, next to only Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah.
He addressed 35 rallies during the campaign for the Gujarat assembly polls last year, frequented Tripura during the February election and is giving the BJP’s campaign a push in Karnataka that will vote in May.
What he lost in between was his home turf – Gorakhpur – that the Mutt’s head priests have held without a break since 1989. Adityanath’s guru Mahant Avedyanath got elected to the Lok Sabha first in 1970 and then held the seat between 1989 and 1998. He passed the baton to Adityanath. Now, for the first time in 28 years, the Gorakhnath MP will not come from the Mutt.
The strong following of the Gorakhnath Mutt in Tripura and coastal Karnataka had prompted the BJP to send Adityanath beyond the boundaries of Uttar Pradesh. “It’s a warning signal for him,” a Union minister from Uttar Pradesh said on the condition of anonymity. “He cannot take UP for granted anymore.”
Adityanath, too, said “overconfidence” cost the BJP on both the seats and that the defeat was a matter of introspection. “We need to review this verdict so as we perform better in future,” he said in Lucknow.
The clout of the Gorakhnath Math in the region bordering Nepal and Adityanath’s personality cult made him indispensi-
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ble in the region. An upper caste Thakur leader, Yogi epitomised a strong Hindutva brand of politics that helped him win a following among different castes. He raised a brigade of young men – the Hindu Yuva Vahini – that also courted controversies with its activities in the Gorakhpur region.
A personal following and that of the Mutt ensured Adityanath was not dependent on the BJP to win election, and he used this advantage over the years to armtwist the saffron party on organisational matters, such as appointments and distribution of tickets in his region.
He was the surprise pick for the CM’s post when the BJP won a three-fourths majority in assembly elections last year. As chief minister, he kept the Gorakhpur connect alive, visiting the temple, too, often for religious and other works.
“He, perhaps, overestimated his strength and underestimated the SP-BSP alliance’s,” a Lok Sabha MP from eastern Uttar Pradesh said on condition of anonymity. BJP insiders in Delhi ruled out any immediate political fallout for him in Uttar Pradesh, but claimed his functioning will be “closely watched” from here that earlier.
“To lose a seat that we won by a margin of 3-lakh plus votes just four years back cannot be swept under the carpet,” a senior office bearer of the BJP said on condition of anonymity.