Campaigns already at fever pitch

KARNATAKA ELECTION Leaders of all main parties — Congress, BJP, JD(S) — have already conducted multiple tours of the state

The Election Commission might have announced election dates for Karnataka only on Tuesday but poll campaigning in the state is in full swing. All three political parties — the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the Congress and the Janata Dal (Secular) — have launched statewide tours to drum up support.

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, BJP president Amit Shah and Congress president Rahul Gandhi have all visited the state. Modi has addressed eight rallies in the state, Shah is on his fourth tour and Gandhi has completed four tours of the state. JD(S) chief HD Deve Gowda and his son HD Kumaraswamy are also travelling across the state.

“We are confident of winning a clear majority in the state,” said Shah, adding that his party was ready for the polls.

Karnataka chief minister Siddaramaiah said his party was expecting the announcement. “We felt the announcement could be made any time after March 23,” he said. The state goes to the polls on May 12 and results are out on May 15. The Congress is fighting to retain control of the only large state it is in power currently while the BJP is looking to make inroads into the south.

The recent decision of the state government to recognise Lingayats and Veerashaiva-Lingayats (those who follow teachings of 12th century philosopher Basavanna) is expected to have a bearing on the polls, as the BJP’s chief ministerial candidate BS Yeddyurappa, a Lingayat, is said to command a significant chunk of supporters.

Meanwhile, there have been rumblings of dissent among all three parties’ members, with BJP president Amit Shah on Tuesday trying to mend differences between Yeddyurappa and senior leader KS Eshwarappa.

In the 2013 elections, Yeddyurappa and followers of the Reddy brothers of Ballari had broken away from the party, and contested against the BJP, which crashed from 110 seats in the 2008 elections to just 40 in 2013. This time, Yeddyurappa and the Reddy brothers have been brought back into the BJP fold.

The dispute over the Mahadayi river water has pit the Congress against the BJP, which rules both other states that are party to the issue — Goa and Maharashtra.

The Congress is banking on a slew of welfare schemes launched by the Siddaramaiah government. The BJP is banking on the alleged anti-Hindu orientation of the state government. It has also called the Congress government the most-corrupt ever.

The JD(S) has projected itself as the best alternative, with Kumaraswamy calling the previous BJP and Congress governments corrupt and inept. It is currently in an alliance with the Congress in the Bengaluru corporation, but Rahul Gandhi has attacked the party calling it the ‘B’ team of the BJP.

Political analysts said the JD(S) had the most at stake. “For that party it is a question of survival,” said Narendar Pani, faculty at the National Institute of Advanced Studies.

“If it does badly, it could be written off,” he added.

For the BJP, analysts said it will be a test of the Party’s claims of pan-India credentials. “While it is unclear how the Lingayats might vote, the BJP has the benefit of a very strong organisation. So, some Lingayats might continue to vote for it because of an emotional connect,” said Harish Ramaswamy, faculty at the Karnatak University in Dharwad.

About the Congress, Pani said, this would be a test to see if it can bounce back and a challenge to its national credentials.

seats (35.27% vote share) (28.33%) (20.77%) (15.63%)

seats (34.76% vote share) (33.86%) (18.96%) Indian National Congress: 122 (including one seat of the Karnataka Makkala Paksha) Bharatiya Janata Party+: 50 (including 3 seats of the Badavara Shramikara Raitara Congress and two seats of Karnataka Janata Paksha)

Janata Dal (Secular): 30 Independents: 7 Vacant: 15 Lingayat separate religion status: It has been a long standing demand of the Lingayats and the Veerashaivas — both considered to belong to the same sect. The state government on Friday officially recognised the Lingayats and the Veerashaiva-Lingayats (those who follow the teachings of 12th century philosopher Basavanna) as a religious minority, pending the Centre's approval. The move was opposed by Veerashaivas, said to be a minority within the sect.

Kannada identity: Since the beginning of 2017, chief minister Siddaramaiah has brought in a series of policies aimed at cultivating a language-based regional identity. Last month, the state government sent a proposal to the Centre for a state flag. Other measures include making singing the state anthem and learning Kannada mandatory in schools. Siddaramaiah had also expressed support to outfits that opposed the use of Hindi on signboards at metro rail stations in Bengaluru. Hindutva: The BJP, over the past year, has made a concerted effort to galvanise Hindu voters by highlighting the alleged anti-Hindu bias of the state government. It has repeatedly said the state government watched as 24 of its workers were killed by "Jihadis", a claim contested by the Congress. Party unity: All three principle parties have faced internal dispute over the past year. While seven rebel MLAs of the JD(S) joined the Congress recently, BJP president Amit Shah tried to mend problems within his party by a dinner meeting with Yeddyurappa and former minister KS Eshwarappa. Siddaramaiah, meanwhile, continues to be viewed as an outsider by Congress leaders, as he switched from the JD(S) in 2006. Agriculture: The government's record over the past five years in the agriculture sector has already become a major issue, with the BJP and JD(S) criticising the Congress for mishandling agrarian distress. The government, on the other hand, has highlighted its outlay on irrigation and other such measures. Anti-incumbency: No govt has come back to govern since 1985. (12.42%)

seats (36.59% vote share) (19.89%) (20.19%) (23.33%)

BENGALURU:

*Including six seats of the KJP, which was headed at the time by BS Yeddyurappa who had split from the BJP, and four seats of the BSR Congress which was at the time headed by B Sriramulu, a close aide of the Reddy brothers of Ballari

The present chief minister has presented a record 13 budgets and has held official government positions since 1982. Siddaramaiah (69), who hails from the influential pastoral Kuruba caste, has attempted to craft a more inclusive image for himself as a leader of the AHINDA (an acronym for minority communities, backward classes and Dalits) and has launched a slew of welfare measures, which he claims have reached over 90% of the population.

The 75-year-old Lingayat leader is credited with having built the BJP into a force in the state, helping it form its first government in south India in 2008. However, allegations of corruption followed and he was even sent to custody in 2011. After breaking away from the party in 2013 and ensuring a humiliating defeat for it, Yeddyurappa was brought back into the fold and named the party's CM face. However, his hold in the party has waned since.

The younger son and political heir of former prime minister HD Deve Gowda, Kumaraswamy (58) was the CM for a brief period between 2006 and 2008 when the JD(S) was in an alliance with the BJP. Hailing from the dominant Vokkaliga caste, Kumaraswamy has said he is the only one capable of providing a stable leadership in the state.

The state Congress chief and senior Dalit leader lost out on the chief minister's post because he lost from his constituency of Koratagere. Since then, he and Siddaramaiah have been entrusted by the high command to ensure a Congress victory in the state. However, differences between the two have simmered over the past five years.

The most influential leader of the dominant Vokkaliga caste, Gowda is reputed to be an astute political manager. While he no longer contests assembly elections in the state, he is still considered a force to reckon with in the state.