EXPECT NORMAL SOUTHWEST MONSOON, SAYS SKYMET

The country is likely to witness a “normal” southwest monsoon, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said in its forecast on Wednesday.

However, the southern peninsula and major portions of northeast India are likely to witness “below normal” rainfall, it said.

“India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100% of the Long Period Average (LPA),” it said in a statement.

“Southern and central parts of Madhya Pradesh and south Chhattisgarh will receive good rains throughout the four months,” Mahesh Palawat, chief meteorologist with Skymet Weather said.

June will see excess rainfall to the tune of 111% of the June LPA. Rains are expected to dip in July and August, with rainfall being 97% and 96% of the LPA respectively. Rainfall activity will pick up again in September.

The monsoon is considered ‘normal’ if the average rainfall is between 96% to 104% of LPA. Anything less than 90% of LPA is termed a “deficient” monsoon, and 90% to 96% of LPA is considered “below normal”.

The met department’s ENSO prediction show that La Niña conditions, which refers to the persistent cooling in the central and eastern Tropical Pacific ocean, are prevailing at the moment. Abnormal warming in the same region creates El Niño conditions. “Generally when La Nina conditions prevail, the monsoon is good,” DS Pai, a senior scientist at IMD Pune, said.

NEWDELHI: