Will US leadership in Asia survive the Trump years?
Washington needs to remain open to tap talent from around the world — something China cannot do
When the Trilateral Commission — a group of political and business leaders, journalists, and academics — met in Singapore recently, many expressed concern about the decline of American leadership in Asia. Every Asian country now trades more with China than with the US, often by a margin of two to one. That concern has been exacerbated by US President Donald Trump’s imposition of tariffs and expressions of contempt for multilateral institutions. So, will US leadership in Asia survive the Trump years?
In Singapore, there was no consensus about Asia after Trump. My own guess is that the US can recover its leadership after the Trump years if it relearns the lessons of using power with others as well as over others. That will require overcoming the unilateral policies and attitudes with the rise of Trump.
As for the rise of China, contrary to current pessimism, the US will retain important power advantages that will last longer than even an eight-year presidency, should Trump be re-elected. The first is demography. According to UN data, the US is the only developed country expected to contribute to global population growth by 2050.
The second is energy. A decade ago, the US seemed hopelessly dependent on imported energy. With the shale revolution, North America may be self-sufficient in the coming decade at the same time that China is becoming more dependent on energy imports.
The third is technology. According to most experts, while China’s capacity is improving, the US remains the world leader in research, development, and commercialisation of these technologies.
In terms of the research base, America has a fourth advantage in its system of higher education. A fifth advantage is the role of the dollar. Of the foreign reserves held by the world’s governments, just 1.1% are in renminbi, compared with 64% for the dollar.
Sixth, the US has geographical advantages that China lacks. The US is surrounded by oceans, and Canada and Mexico remain friendly. China has borders with 14 countries and territorial disputes with many, such as India, Japan, and Vietnam.
In Singapore, I quoted Lee Kuan Yew’s response to a question I once asked him about whether China would surpass the US. He said “no”, because while China had the talents of 1.4 billion people to draw upon, the openness of the US allowed it to tap and combine the talents of 7.5 billion people with greater creativity than China could. If that openness survives, American leadership in Asia, and elsewhere, will most likely survive as well. Everyone has come to this world with some specific purpose. In such a melodious orchestra that is our world, some are born rich, some are poor, and some have to fight for their very existence. There is a lot of dilemma on how the poor manage to earn two square meals a day. Many poor people beg at public places, in the scorching sun and in chilly winter.
Many times we ignore and bypass them intentionally to conceal our inability to