Is the Congress reviving base in poll-bound Odisha?

The Congress party’s image is seeing an upswing nationally and the BJP has taken a beating in Odisha following its defeat in a high-profile bypoll held last month in Bijepur in western Odisha — a relative stronghold for the BJP. Its candidate Ashok Panigrahi could not win even a third of the votes and lost to the BJD candidate Rita Sahu by a margin of more than 40,000 votes. Within weeks of Bijepur, the BJP suffered another setback when it could win only one of the 28 wards in civic body elections in Hindol and Attabira towns in central and western Odisha respectively.

The problem with the BJP, perhaps, is that despite working hard and sharing power in the state for nine years (2000-2009), it hasn’t produced a compelling narrative for the people of Odisha. This could partly hinge on the fact that the BJP is still unable to meaningfully engage with Odisha’s strong regional identity — one that has been shaped more by the politics of assimilation than by aggressively highlighting cultural differences.

As a result, even in 2014, when an unprecedented pan-India wave helped PM Narendra Modi win a historic mandate, the BJP could win only 10 of the 147 seats in the Odisha assembly with a vote share of 18%.

In most adverse conditions, the Congress could still win 16 seats and manage to keep 26% of the votes. The BJD, meanwhile, strengthened its grip further, winning 117 seats. The Congress finished second in 74 assembly constituencies. Importantly, the assembly election was a threecornered contest but the BJP wasn’t in the reckoning in a majority of the seats, getting less than 30,000 votes in 95 constituencies. The average votes cast were 147,000 per constituency.

In effect, the grand show for the Congress on Saturday might indicate that a return of its rank and file to the party could be in the offing. For the BJP, on the other hand, the newfound vigor within the Congress could spell trouble. There is a possibility that the BJP will have to reconsider its gameplan in Odisha. Above all else, it will have to consider if it needs to change its leadership in the state. At the moment, it appears to be advantage Congress.