KARNATAKA COULD HOLD THE KEY TO 2019 POLLS
The voting in Karnataka is over and we’re now awaiting the results day after tomorrow. If the polls are correct, neither the Congress nor the BJP will get a majority though the former could be marginally ahead. In this situation the critical question is: what will the
JD(S) do?
If HD Deve Gowda adheres to his stand not to support either and, instead, sit in opposition, we would have an impasse. Then anything could be possible. Siddaramaiah may be forced to step aside, splits could be engineered in the two big parties and, of course, there would be a lot of talk of money changing hands. But if Deve Gowda is truly implacable, we could even head towards a period of President’s rule followed by another election.
So, instead of a calm after the electoral storm, the real turbulence may be about to begin. A solution may neither be easy nor swift but it could be surprising.
However, nothing that happens in Karnataka will diminish the bigger question that’s already staring India in the face: what will happen at the national elections in one year’s time? Most people believe two outcomes can be credibly discounted.
First, the Congress will not get a majority and it’s hard to believe Rahul Gandhi could emerge as prime minister with the support of allies. Second, the BJP is unlikely to win as many seats as in 2014. Its losses in UP, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Gujarat, and Haryana are unlikely to be made up by gains in the North East, Bengal and Odisha.
The key question is how many seats will the party lose? If the BJP retains around 250, any government it forms will be more dependent on allies than the present one. In turn, this will have an impact on Mr Modi’s style and authority. Even if neither alter dramatically, they cannot be the same as they are today.
However, what if the BJP only wins 210 or 220? As the single largest party it could still form a government but now might the allies demand a different prime minister? Or is this fanciful thinking? The truth is we just don’t know.
What happens in 2019 depends not former South Korean president Kin Dae-jung won a Nobel Prize for his work toward a Korean peace deal in 2000. The Nobel committee is unlikely ever to offer Trump anything, and Moon, despite his protestations that Trump is more deserving, is an obvious choice for a future prize. South Korea itself will be a winner for as long as a pre-emptive US attack on North Korea is no longer up on the table.
Trump is an obvious winner. Every step away from conflict with North Korea allows him to argue that his high-pressure approach is a winner and that he’s better able to bring lasting peace than Barack Obama proved to be. Securing the release of Americans held in the DPRK is a win by itself. The US wins if Trump can earn a test ban on missiles capable of hitting the US. But over the long-term, the US will find it has less influence over the future of the region.
That’s why China is the biggest winner of all. The Chinese leadership has long feared that a North Korea-related just on how voters view the BJP after five years in office but also on the quality and unity of the opposition it faces. This could be the cause of either Mr Modi’s denouement or survival.
In the unlikely event of opposition parties collectively implementing Mamata Banerjee’s suggestion of a one-to-one fight, the BJP could be in serious trouble. However, though Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav seem determined to make this a reality in UP, it’s hard to believe it’s possible in Bengal and Tamil Nadu or, even, Maharashtra, leave aside Delhi.
Still, it’s possible we could end up with a situation analogous to 1989, with the BJP as the biggest party but others together comprising the majority. This is reminiscent of the National Front or United Front, a political khichri forever pulling apart rather than holding together. It’s bound to be a weak and short-lived government.
The final question is: who will that benefit? Narendra Modi, who can credibly claim apres moi le deluge? Or Rahul Gandhi, who could symbolise a fresh start with a new face?
My hunch is if the BJP slides to the 200 mark it will opt out of forming a government altogether and prefer to sit in opposition. Mr Modi might believe this is a brief interlude before time and tide restore him to power.
THE BIGGEST LOSER WOULD BE JAPAN. A LIGHTER U.S. PRESENCE IN THE REGION, EXPANSION OF CHINESE INFLUENCE, AND A BURST OF NATIONAL PRIDE IN KOREA ALL CREATE TROUBLE FOR TOKYO
security emergency could spill across the border into northeast China. A peace deal would reduce that threat. And as US influence recedes with a partial drawdown of US troops, China will gain another step toward becoming East Asia’s dominant diplomatic and economic player.
The biggest loser from a Trump-Kim deal would be Japan, which remains within range of North Korean weapons that don’t need to be tested. A lighter US presence in the region, further expansion of Chinese influence, and a burst of national pride in Korea all create trouble for Tokyo.
Of course, there are still clear obstacles to a deal. Will Trump back away when Kim makes clear that he will freeze, but not surrender, his nuclear weapons programme? Will Kim accept anything less than an explicit US pledge never to invade his country? Or maybe Kim is simply playing for time by beginning a negotiation process he hopes will bring immediate economic relief while extending the talks until Trump is no longer president?
For now, it appears the two men will meet. Each has an interest in a deal that makes him a winner. For now, we should suspend our scepticism until we see what sort of a deal they can make.