IN TRUMPKIM DEAL, CHINA IS THE BIGGEST WINNER
What if Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un really do make a deal? There is plenty of reason for scepticism. Why would Kim surrender the nuclear weapons programme he has worked so hard to expand? Why would the US withdraw its 28,500 troops? How can Kim build a sustainable North Korean economy that relieves him of the need to blackmail his way to financial help? There are other unanswered questions.
But it’s possible that a meeting between Trump and Kim will produce an agreement that represents a major step forward. With a pledge to continue the discussion of “denuclearisation,” perhaps Kim will agree to a permanent suspension of tests of intercontinental ballistic missiles, removing the threat that North Korea can launch a nuclear attack on the US mainland. In exchange, Trump might pledge to draw down the total number of US soldiers on the peninsula.
North Korea then welcomes inspectors to take stock of its nuclear assets. Trump gives his blessing to a peace deal between Kim and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and promises the US will not invade the North so long as it complies with a test ban and cooperates with inspectors.
North Korea would be an obvious winner. Even without an active nuclear programme, the DPRK has enough conventional military firepower to keep its leverage in future negotiations. Kim has already improved his and his country’s image with South Koreans, particularly young people, who feel less natural kinship than their parents and grandparents with their neighbours. A deal with Trump would intensify that effect. The greater test will come when Kim begins to experiment with an opening of the North Korean economy, and therefore the country, to outsiders.
Moon would be a clear winner for as long as the deal holds. He knows that
NEWS OF THE WEEK
MAY 15: Azim Husain of India informed the UN General Assembly that India would not subscribe to the draft nuclear non-proliferation treaty, saying it did not conform to the principles embodied in the UN resolution on the subject