How Belgium benefited from recession and FFP
Belgium play their first World Cup semi-final in 32 years. The small nation has reached this stage with the help of a ‘Golden Generation’, a group of footballers who play at some of the best clubs in Europe. But this bunch may not have come up by chance. In fact, it may have come about as a result of clubs responding to the global economic downturn of the late noughties and spending regulations.
From transfer data for the past decade, we see the number of Belgians playing in the ‘Big Five’ leagues of England, Spain, Germany, Italy and France started rising around the same time Europe went into recession. In the 2007/08 season, there were 12 Belgians playing in the Big Five leagues. Last season, in 2017/18, that number had risen to 53.
Interestingly, the number of Belgians kept rising even while transfer spending plateaued in the early 2010s, partly from the recession.
In the 2009 summer transfer window, clubs from the Big Five spent $2.6 billion on buying, according to CIES Football Observatory. Transfer spending didn’t cross that mark for the next three summer windows, till the Big Five spent $3.1 billion in 2013.
Another reason why this plateauing of transfer spending may have come about is because of Financial Fair Play (FFP) regulations introduced by UEFA in 2011.
FFP rules limit club spending to $60 million more than their revenues over a three-year monitoring period. Spending over those limits could mean fines, transfer bans and even exclusion from European competitions.
Transfer spending by the Big Five picked up again after 2013 as money came in from TV companies and new broadcast agreements were signed.
After that, most clubs were able to increase their spending and still abide by FFP.
NEWDELHI:
Total transfer spending ($ billion) in summer transfer windows
Recession in various Big Five Countries 2008-09 09-10 10-11
<-- FFP* monitoring begins in 2011 11-12 12-13
But as transfer spending in the summer windows plateaued and sometimes fell from 2010 to 2012, why did the number of Belgians in the Big Five not fall but keep rising? 13-14 Number of Belgian players playing in Big Five** Leagues 14-15 15-16 16-17 17-18 This is because of the kind of Belgians that were being bought. They were mostly young and hence cheaper for the clubs to afford more of them.
We can see how clubs signed more Belgian youngsters by looking at the Belgium team itself. If we divide the 23-member World Cup squad into players born before January 1, 1990 and after, the ones born before 1990 joined a Big Five club at an average age of 23 while those born after 1990 joined at an average age of 19.So the recession and FFP spending rules may have led to Big Five clubs buying more Belgian youngsters, thus giving them the experience that is paying off in this World Cup.