What might lie ahead for the assembly
The Goa assembly has 40 members. In the 2017 assembly elections, the Congress emerged the single largest party with 17 MLAs, four seats ahead of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP).
The Goa Forward Party (GFP), the Maharashtrawadi Gomantak Party (MGP) and Independents won three seats each, while one seat went to the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP). The BJP formed a government with the support of all nonCongress parties except the NCP. Vishwajit Rane, who was elected on a Congress ticket resigned and got re-elected on a BJP ticket, taking the Congress and BJP tally to 16 and 14 respectively. The BJP-led alliance had 23 members, a majority of three. After the speakers election it ended up with 22.
Currently, three BJP’s members of legislative assembly (MLAs) are hospitalised with serious ailments. Chief minister Manohar Parrikar, is hospitalised at Delhi’s All India Institutes of Medical Sciences (AIIMS). Francis D’Souza, Minister of Urban Development, is hospitalised in the US with a kidney ailment and Pandurang Madkaikar, Minister of Power, suffered a debilitating stroke on June 5, and has been hospitalised since then.
None of the Independents has indicated a desire to split from the BJP, nor have either of the allies. Still, assuming that this is a possibility, there are three scenarios.
SCENARIO 1: STATUS QUO
Given the fact that all of the ailing members are still part of the assembly, and assuming that none of the MLAs currently supporting the BJP switch camps, the BJP government has 22 members, excluding the speaker (who is from the BJP) in the assembly. Even if the three hospitalised MLAs of the BJP are factored out, the party will have the support of 19 MLAs excluding the speaker against the Congress-NCP which have 17 MLAs.
SCENARIO 2: WAVERING INDEPENDENT
If one of the independent members of the assembly decides to split from the BJP, the two sides will be tied apiece at 18.
If the three hospitalised members vote, the BJP will go through. Or the speaker could exercise a deciding vote. If two independent members of the assembly split from the BJP, and the three hospitalized members vote, the ruling alliance will still win.
SCENARIO 3: THE IMPORTANCE OF THREES
If all three independents, or either the MGP, or the GFP split from the BJP, the ruling alliance will be left with 19 MLAs, including the three hospitalized ones. The Congress-led alliance will have 20, and the speaker will not have to cast a vote because there isn’t a tie. Still, this is a remote possibility at this time because all the allies are currently still supporting the government
In case just one independent MLA switches camps, the government will scrape through via a casting vote by the speaker. Things could become tricky if either the MGP or GFP or all three independent MLAs decide to support the Congress-NCP, which will take their strength to 20. Even if the three hospitalised MLAs were to turn up for voting, the floor division will be 20-19 against the government.
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