KEY TAKEAWAYS

There is only a 36% chance that two random Indians can talk to and understand each other in case they meet, given the large diversity in languages and the low share of multilingual population (only 26%)

Two random people from the Hindi belt are highly likely to be able to have a conversation as most people in the region speak the same language

Outside the Hindi belt, the probability is low even in case of two neighbouring states because of the lack of a common language among them

The probability that two random people from the same state can have a conversation is the highest in Kerala (96%) and the lowest in Nagaland (24%) West Bengal, and 25% for Assam.

In fact, outside the homogenous Hindi Belt, the probability that two random persons from even two neighbouring states can talk is low. Take Karnataka and Kerala, for instance: the probability is merely 5%.

This happens because states outside the Hindi belt do not have a common dominant language like Hindi.

A majority of the people in each of these states speak their own regional languages. And because the rate of multilingualism is low, the chance of being able to communicate is low.

But what about within states? In 25 out of 35 states and union territories, there is an over 75% chance that two randomly selected people from the same state can have a conversation.

It is the highest in Kerala (96%), which is in harmony with the state’s low linguistic diversity — 97% of people there are native Malayalam speakers.

However, some Indian states are highly diverse, leading to a lower probability there.

It is the lowest in Nagaland, which is one of the most linguistically diverse states with dozens of tribes having their own languages.

There is only a 24% chance that two people from the state will be able to have a conversation.

PROBABILITY FIGURES ARE UNDERESTIMATED

Still, the probability calculated from census data may not be representative of what’s happening on the ground (at least in Nagaland) , said Laishram Bijenkumar Singh, assistant professor at the Centre for Naga Tribal Language Studies, Nagaland University.

The lack of a common language among various Naga tribes has led to the emergence of Nagamese, a Creole language not recorded by the Census.

“Nagamese is a mixture of Assamese, Bengali and some other languages,” he said. “The language has influenced the Naga tribes to the extent that new generations report it as their mother tongue.”

There is another caveat with these figures: the analysis does not account for the similarities between languages.

For example, most Punjabi speakers can understand Hindi; so is the case with Gujarati and Marathi; Hindi and Urdu; Odia and Bengali; and Bengali and Assamese.

OUTSIDE THE HOMOGENOUS HINDI BELT, THE PROBABILITY THAT TWO RANDOM PERSONS FROM EVEN TWO NEIGHBOURING STATES CAN TALK IS LOW

About 43% Indians are native Hindi speakers while the rate of multilingualism is the lowest among them. Second biggest language Bengali has the second lowest rate of multilingualism. Mother tongue Second language Third language A random person from UP is highly likely to be able to talk to a person from the Hindi belt states. One from Tamil Nadu is very less likely to be able to talk to a random person from any other state. Probability (%) 0-20

20-40

40-60

60-80

80-100