In absence of curbs, 1 person can infect 406: Govt study
ICMR has done a study and based on that, if the social exposure is reduced by 75% then an infected person will only infect 2.5 others in a matter of 30 days
NEW DELHI: A person carrying the Sars-cov-2, the virus that causes Covid-19, is capable of infecting 406 people in 30 days in the absence of a lockdown, Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR experts have estimated.
That is based on the assumption that R-naught, or R0, a virus’s basic reproductive number (meaning the number of persons an infected patient can potentially infect) is 2.5.
“ICMR has done a study and based on that, if the social exposure is reduced by 75% then an infected person will only infect 2.5 others in a matter of 30 days, telling us about the effects of better implementation of the lockdown and social distancing,” said Lav Agarwal, joint secretary in the health ministry.
According to experts, it takes about two weeks to show the results of such an emergency measure. India has reported 4,421 positive cases of the coronavirus disease, and 117 deaths. In the past 24 hours, 354 new cases were reported, and as the numbers are rising, healthcare facilities are being assigned to deal with different categories of patients.
To streamline coronavirus disease management, and make optimum use of the infrastructure, health facilities have been divided into three crucial groups: Covid Care Centres, Covid Health Centres and Dedicated Covid Hospitals. The Covid care centres
LAV AGARWAL, Joint secy , health minitsry
will be offering care for clinically mild or very mild, or are suspected cases.
These could either be makeshift facilities, or can be set up in hostels, hotels, schools and so on., both public and private. The existing quarantine facilities could also be converted into Covid care centres, if required.
However, this facility must have separate areas for suspected and confirmed cases, with preferably a separate entry and exit. Suspected and confirmed cases must not be allowed to mix, according to the guideline on the functioning of these facilities.
This facility will also need to be linked with either a hospital or a health centre to ensure a patient will receive quick treatment in case he or she develops symptoms. It will have a dedicated Basic Life Support Ambulance (BLSA) with oxygen support.
The second category is of dedicated Covid health centres that will be proper hospitals to admit clinically moderate cases. This will either be a full hospital or a separate hospital block. These hospitals will have beds with assured oxygen support. These hospitals will be linked with one or more dedicated Covid hospitals so that patients can be moved, if need be.
The third category is of dedicated Covid hospitals that will treat critically ill patients. These hospitals, including the private ones, will have fully equipped intensive care units, ventilators and beds with assured oxygen support.
All states have been directed to set up separate fever clinics so that there is no intermingling of other patients. The patients will also accordingly be categorized into three categories-- mild, asymptomatic or suspected cases, positive cases with moderate symptoms, and critical cases.
The ICMR’S testing capacity has also seen a jump over the past few weeks. Of the total 107,006 samples tested, 11,795 samples were tested on Monday and Tuesday. Currently, 136 government labs are testing for Covid-19. The 59 approved private laboratories have conducted 2,530 tests so far.
Among the cluster containment measures, Agarwal shared some success stories. “Agra and GB Nagar (UP), Bhilwara (Rajasthan), East Delhi and Pathanamthitta (Kerala) clusters have been contained due to the proactive measures at the ground level. We have put out containment strategies for small clusters and large outbreaks,” he said.