The Chinese trishul in South Asia
ventions such as waterways, railways and a gas pipeline in Nepal, and established electricity grid connections with Bangladesh. It blocked Saarc, and reinvigorated counter-balancing regional institutions such as the Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal (BBIN) initiative and the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec). But India has not come up with a comprehensive counter-trishul approach yet.
India’s neighbourhood is now entangled in an unparalleledbalancing dilemma. These countries are striving diplomatically to convey an impression of non-alignment. Aware that the cost of alignment, even at the perception level, could generate suspicion, they consciously appease India on its core concerns such as terrorism. But India is adept at immediately sensing significant deviations in their foreign policy. Nepal’s tilt towards China, even without major formal agreements and projects, was obvious. Later, when Nepal signed Memoranda of Understanding (MOUS) related to access to ports, partnership in BRI initiatives, and other trade and investment ventures with China. India unsuccessfully tried to use the proverbial stick but had to quickly fall back on the theme of historic and cultural ties. These nations fear that the competitive and conflictual existence of two giant neighbours, however beneficial, can result in micro-management in their domestic affairs. This could even jeopardise their sovereignty.
When Sri Lankan Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa visited India to allay apprehensions about his earlier “aligned posture”, and when the Maldives President Ibrahim Solih reassured India of its traditional hold in the island, they were, in fact, trying to evolve a new balancing technique. In Bangladesh, Sheikh Hasina, overwhelmed by President Xi Jinping’s liberal investment announcement in 2016, said that Bangladesh would maintain “good relations with everyone. The purchasing power of our people will increase, and who will be the bigger beneficiary of that in our region? India. India is best poised to benefit from the Bangladeshi market”. China’s trishul approach, India’s attempts to counter it, and the new balancing code being adopted by smaller neighbours, is transforming South Asia.