Monsoon onset over Kerala likely today

NEW DELHI: Conditions were becoming favourable for the onset of monsoon in Kerala on Thursday, two days behind schedule, as south-westerly winds have strengthened and resulted in an increase in rainfall in the state, the India Meteorological Department said. IMD earlier revised its forecast on Sunday and said the onset has been delayed by two days after saying the monsoon would start on May 31.

The arrival of the monsoon, which is crucial to the country’s farm-dependent economy as 60% of India’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation, is announced on the basis of factors such as wind speed, consistency of rainfall, intensity, and cloudiness. The monsoon arrives first in Kerala around June 1. It is expected to cover the rest of the country by July 5.

“The spatial rainfall distribution has increased over Kerala. Westerly winds have strengthened in the lower levels over the south Arabian Sea and deepened,” IMD said in a statement on Wednesday. It cited satellite imagery and added there is an increase in cloudiness over the Kerala coast. “The conditions [are] likely to favour further enhancement in rainfall activity over Kerala during the next 24-hours. Hence, the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely in the next 24 hours [Thursday].”

In its second-stage long-range forecast on Tuesday, IMD said monsoon rainfall, a key variable in the health of the rural economy, is likely to be normal at 101% of the long-period average (LPA) after two years of aboveaverage rainfall. LPA is the average rainfall (88cm) recorded from 1961 to 2010.