Monsoon likely to reach Kerala today
NEW DELHI Kerala can expect the onset of monsoon on Thursday, two days behind schedule, as south-westerly winds have strengthened and resulted in an increase in rain, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has said. IMD had earlier anticipated an early onset of monsoon by a day, but then revised its forecast on Sunday.
The arrival of the monsoon, which is crucial to the country’s farm-dependent economy as 60% of India’s net-sown area does not have access to irrigation, is announced on the basis of factors such as wind speed, consistency of rainfall, intensity, and cloudiness. The monsoon arrives first in Kerala around June 1. It is expected to cover the rest of India by July 5.
“The spatial rainfall distribution has increased over Kerala. Westerly winds have strengthened in the lower levels over the south Arabian Sea and deepened,” IMD said in a statement on Wednesday. It cited satellite imagery and added there is an increase in cloudiness over the Kerala coast and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea.
“The... conditions [are] likely to favour further enhancement in rainfall activity over Kerala during the next 24-hours. Hence, the monsoon onset over Kerala is likely in the next 24 hours (Thursday).”
In its second-stage longrange forecast on Tuesday, IMD said monsoon rainfall, a key variable in the health of the rural economy, is likely to be normal at 101% of the long-period average (LPA) after two years of above-average rainfall. LPA is the average rainfall (88cm) recorded from 1961 to 2010. India receives about 70% of its annual rainfall during the four-month monsoon that is crucial for rice, soybeans, and cotton cultivation. Good rains have been a prime reason for the farm sector’s resilience for two years despite the pandemic. India has over 150 million farmers and nearly half of Indians are dependent on a farm-based income.
Agriculture is one of the mainstays of its economy. Monsoon spurs farm produce and improves rural spending. The monsoon impacts inflation, jobs, and industrial demand. It also replenishes 89 nationally important reservoirs critical for drinking and power generation.
IMD cited strengthening of lower-level south-westerly winds and said widespread rainfall activity is likely in north-eastern states during this week.
Heavy to very heavy rainfall is likely in Assam and Meghalaya during the same period. Heavy rainfall was expected in Arunachal Pradesh and Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura Wednesday.
A western disturbance as a trough in mid and upper tropospheric westerlies and a cyclonic circulation was lying over northwest Madhya Pradesh in lower tropospheric levels.