Hills creak under climate crisis, construction India already recording events IPCC warned of
The slide that struck a national way in Himachal Pradesh’s aur district has brought focus on the delicate ecolof the region, which has weakened further by the an-induced climate crisis unchecked construction of er projects, experts say. ese factors together raise ossibility of landslides and s, which loom as a threat in ion to the seismological feathat predispose the region rthquakes, which can furtrigger big landslides. anshi Asher of Himdhara ective, an environment p based in Himachal, sumsed these as three factors made the region vulnerable sasters: fragile ecology, clie change and unplanned lopment. innaur, located in greater alayas, is inheritably fragile. to a lot of tectonic movement
the region is highly sensitive hydropower projects that have come up or are planned in Kinnaur, at present inhabitant mostly by mountain tribes.
The tunnelling, excavation and blasting work being done to build these dams threatens an already fragile landscape, Asher added.
A study carried out in Kinnaur between 2012 and 2016 found that a push for hydropower projects in the name of clean energy brought rapid landuse changes that adversely impacting local terrestrial ecosystems and communities inhabiting them.
It found that of the area of forest land diverted to non-forest activities between 1980 and 2014, 90% was transferred for hydroelectric projects and transmission lines, leading to fragmentation of forests and loss of biodiversity in the Kinnaur region.
Asher said Nigulsari is in close proximity to one of the largest hydropower project in the state – the Nathpa Jhakri.
Ambrish Kumar Mahajan, professor at the School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Central University of Himachal Pradesh, agreed with Asher’s assessment. “Kinnaur is fragile due to the highly jointed and fractured geology,” he said.
Then, there are steep slopes and a lot of development activities along it. “Clubbed together, these factors have made Kinnaur a hub of landslide disasters,” he said. He added the risk extended to Himachal Pradesh as a whole, and this has been borne out in several instances.
In addition to the warnings, some of the red flags came from within assessments by the government’s own departments. The environment department of Himachal Pradesh government, in its State Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan in 2012, warned that floods, landslides, glacial lake bursts, excess rainfall, excess snowfall and unseasonal rains will pose a threat.
It said the state could experience a difference of 1-5 degrees C in minimum temperature and 0.5-2.5 degrees C in maximum temperature by 2030.
Kinnaur, located in greater Himalayas, is inheritably fragile. Due to a lot of tectonic movement the region is highly sensitive...
India has already started witnessing what the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) flagged in its “Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis” report on Monday — so-called compound extreme events, including severe cyclonic storms, floods and heatwaves.
In May, extremely severe cyclonic storm Tauktae intensified rapidly and unexpectedly, clocking wind speeds of 180-190kmph gusting to 210kmph, and resulting in intense spells of rain in Mumbai.
It was a combination of two extreme events — over the ocean Tauktae rapidly intensified from a “very severe cyclonic storm” to an “extremely severe cyclonic storm” within a few hours on the morning of May 17 while over land, torrential rains inundated and crippled the country’s financial capital, shutting down even the city’s Chhatrapati Shivaji Maharaj International Airport.
Such compound or cascading extreme events are expected to be more frequent and may have a high impact in coming years, IPCC warned.
Compound extreme events are a combination of multiple drivers or hazards that contribute to societal or environmental risk. Examples are concurrent heatwaves and droughts, compound flooding (a storm surge in combination with extreme rainfall and river flow), compound fire weather conditions (a combination of hot, dry, and windy conditions), or concurrent extremes at different locations.
“The changing climate state is already altering the likelihood of extreme events, such as decadal droughts and extreme sea levels, and will continue to do so under future warming. Compound events and concurrent extremes contribute to increasing probability of low-likelihood, high-impact outcomes and will become more frequent with increasing global warming,” the report said.
Based on 14,000 scientific papers studied by 234 experts, the IPCC report said the world will miss its target of keeping global warming to under 1.5 degrees C over pre-industrial levels, and that this will exceed in the next two decades, resulting in a higher frequency and intensity of extreme weather events. Attributing the heating almost exclusively to human activity, it also called for immediate action, including a move away from fossil fuels, if the world wants to keep global warming to under 2 degrees C.
A projection by the panel that may be particularly relevant to India is that the compound effects of climate change, land subsidence and human factors may lead to higher flood levels and prolonged inundation in Mekong Delta and other Asian coasts. An increasing sea level compounded by increasing tropical cyclone storms and rainfall intensity may increase the probability of coastal city flooding.
“These events are already happening. This is basically one extreme event triggering another or two or more extreme events taking place at the same time. The impact of such events is very high. For example, there can be extreme precipitation and extreme flooding at the same time. Or there is extreme heat leading to heat waves which then triggers wildfires that can make management of disasters very complicated. Another example is of tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall happening together. We can expect such multiple or cascading events taking place together more frequently when there is 1.5 degree C warming,” said R Krishnan, executive director, Centre for Climate Change Research at Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology and one of the authors of the report.
The report also said extreme rain and winds can result in infrastructure damage; the compounding of storm surge and rain extremes can cause coastal floods; the combination of drought and heat can lead to tree mortality; and wildfires can increase hailstorms and lightning.
Compound storm types comprising co-located cyclone and thunderstorm systems can cause extreme rainfall and winds than individual storm types, IPCC said, adding that studies also show an increasing risk for breadbasket regions to be concurrently affected by climate extremes with increasing global warming, even between 1.5°C and 2°C of global warming.
India’s 7,516- km-long coastline is particularly vulnerable to compound events, the report said. “It’s very simple, the Indian Ocean is warming at a higher rate compared to the global average. This is often leading to tropical cyclones intensifying very rapidly. Along with that, we have sea level rise in coastal areas. We are also seeing higher storm surge and strong winds.all of this is coming together with extreme rainfall. Extreme rainfall events are rising at the rate of 7% with every 1 degree C of warming. These are compound events and not singular events. We saw a similar pattern for Amphan, Tauktae and Yaas and this will only become more frequent in future,” said Subimal Ghosh, Institute Chair Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, IIT, Mumbai and another author of the IPCC report.
Krishnan said early warning systems have improved significantly since the 1999 Odisha super cyclone but more accuracy is needed in forecasting the intensity of cyclones. “We need widespread awareness of climate change-related disasters and training in climate change, oceanography and meteorology should start very early from high school,” he added