Ind-ra cuts FY2 GDP forecast du to slow vax driv

India Ratings and Research on Thursday revised downward its economic growth forecast for India to 9.4% for FY22 from 9.6% estimated earlier, as it does not expect the entire adult population to get vaccinated by December 31.

The rating agency had earlier expected the economy to grow by 9.1% in a scenario where vaccinating all the adults gets pushed back to March 2022 and 9.6% if the government achieves its target of rendering vaccine doses by December.

Ind-ra said the government is likely to miss its target, and vaccinating all adults will get spilled over to March, but revised upwards the growth forecast.

Its principal economist and director of public finance, Sunil Kumar Sinha explained that the recovery in June and July from the after-effects of the second wave of the pandemic has been surprisingly fast, calling it as one of the main reasons for the revision.

Additionally, the global markets are also doing good as the Covid threats ebb leading to higher exports in India, w the south west monsoon revived which increases prospects on the rural econ front, Sinha said, pointing these factors prompted the growth estimate.

Sinha, however, made it c that the high growth numb driven by low base (the econ had contracted by 7.6% in F and even after the growth, actual size of the economy be just at par with the one in Covid times.

The economist also flag concerns on rising inequal in the society, saying the demic has pushed large num of people back into poverty

“Whatever recovery we about now will be a ‘K-sha recovery,” he said, replying question on the same and ing it clear that this isn ‘Y-shaped’ recovery.