‘Possibility of 3rd wave negligible if virus doesn’t mutate’

KANPUR The possibility of a third wave of Covid-19 is negligible if the virus doesn’t mutate, claimed experts at the Iit-kanpur.

The vaccination drive has further reduced the risk but all depends on a new mutant of the virus, said Prof Manindra Agarwal, head of computer science department.

“In case of fresh mutation, India could have 4 to 5 lakh new cases a day. But if the virus doesn’t mutate and the highly contagious delta variant remains in play, then the overall impact would be negligible,” he said after a new study based on the mathematical model formula he created along with four other scientists of the country in June last year.

According to this model, the infection rate was decreasing in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and Delhi, where active cases would be in single digits by October.

Rakesh Ranjan, assistant professor at IIT-K, referred to the UK, where vaccination has taken off the virus’ lethality. “In case the third wave doesn’t set in for the next two or three months, the risk level will further be alleviated,” he said.

Prof Agarwal rejected reports about herd immunity in 85% of people in the country. The ICMR’S sero survey report in June stated that around 62% people were found immune. Vaccination drive has gathered momentum since July and the percentage would be around 70 to 72% now, he said.

The professor has been making predictions about Covid peak and drop through a mathematical model he created along with four other top scientists of the country in June last year.

Prof Ranjan too has been making near-precise predictions with his model.

He said the third wave hit the UK when 50 to 60% of population had been vaccinated. UK registered 40,000 to 45,000 cases a day in the second wave and 35,000 to 40,000 cases in the third wave.

“The difference between the two was low case fatality ratio (CFR). This shows the vaccine has weakened the virus. Vaccination has to be stepped up and 50% of the population has to have both the doses,” he added.

The estimation of Empowered Group headed by Niti Ayog member VK Paul about the possible third wave projecting some 4 lakh cases a day hasn’t got the endorsement of IIT Kanpur experts who have been making sound predictions on Covid since last year.